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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI
Novita Andriani
Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Mulawarman
Mathematics

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Aplikasi Double Exponential Smoothing Holt dan Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter dengan Optimasi Golden Section untuk Meramalkan Nilai Ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Novita Andriani; Sri Wahyuningsih; Meiliyani Siringoringo
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 18 No. 3 (2022): MAY, 2022
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/j.v18i3.17492

Abstract

Exponential smoothing is one of the short term forecasting methods. The selection of the forecasting method can be done by considering the type of data pattern, such as the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt method which can be used on trend patterned data and the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter method which can be used on trend and seasonal patterned data. The main problem in using the Holt DES and Holt-Winter TES methods is the parameter selection which is usually done by trial and error, but this method takes a long time so that in this research a more efficient method is used to obtain optimal parameters, namely the golden section method. The purpose of this research was to forecast and obtain the best method for forecasting the export value of East Borneo Province. The results showed that the forecasted of export values used the Holt DES, the additive Holt-Winter TES, and the multiplicative Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method had a MAPE of less than 10%, which means that the forecast used these methods were very good. The best method to predict the export value of East Borneo Province was the additive Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method.
Co-Authors Fachry Abda El Rahman Meiliyani Siringoringo