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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jagaditha Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen Mulawarman (JIMM)
Anis Rachma Utary
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Mulawarman
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Effect of Commodity Price on Indonesia Rupiah Exchange Rate and Dow Jones Index on Indonesia Stock Exchange Siti Hernita Oktavia; Anis Rachma Utary; Felisitas Defung
Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis JAGADITHA Vol. 5 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : Magister Manajemen, Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Warmadewa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2263.182 KB) | DOI: 10.22225/jj.5.2.809.109-118

Abstract

Capital market is one of today's economic instruments that has developed very rapidly. One way to measure the performance of capital market is through stock index. There are many affecting factors to the stock index, such as domestic interest rates, foreign exchange rates, international economic conditions, the country's economic cycle, inflation rates, tax regulations, the amount of money in circulation (M. Samsul, 2008). The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of Oil Prices, World Gold Prices, Exchange Rate of Indonesian Rupiah, and Dow Jones on IHSG (Indonesia Stock Exchange). We used analytical method with multiple regression analysis performed with SPSS 24 to conduct the study. In advance to applying multiple regression analysis, we administered a classic assumption test. This is necessary to make the regression equation is BLUE (Best, Linear, Unbiased, Estimator). Results of data analysis showed that Gold Price and Indonesia Rupiah Exchange rate negatively affected the Indonesia Stock Exchange; the Oil Prices and Dow Jones index also had a positive effect on Indonesia Stock Exchange. The value of adjusted R square is 59.7%. This means that by 59.7% Indonesia Stock Exchange movement can be predicted from the movement of the independent variables.
Analisis Peramalan Tingkat Produksi Minyak Mentah (Crude Oil) Menggunakan Metode Moving Average (MA) pada PT Pertamina EP Field Sangasanga Megawati Megawati; Anis Rachma Utary; Musdalifah Azis
Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen Mulawarman (JIMM) Vol 2, No 1 (2017): April
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29264/jimm.v2i1.843

Abstract

The goal of this research is to know the estimation rate of crude oil production that will be supplied to Refinery Unit (RU) V in Balikpapan in the upcoming period in PT Pertamina  EP  Sangasanga  Field.  The  forecast  calculation  held  during  the  appointed period and the calculation is based on the data of company history began in January 2015 until July 2016. The analysis instrument in this research is Single Moving Average method. This method is used for calculating forecast production rate in the upcoming period by using company data history. Single Moving Average method is the forecast method that use the average number (n) of the latest data to calculate the future forecast period. The result show that either forecast of each area or total of the area has different squard error. Single moving average method is appropriate in Sangasanga; Samboja, and Anggana, because either MAE or MSE of five months period is lower than three months period. For the total area, MAE of single moving average calculation of five months period is lower than three months period while the MSE of five months period is higher than three months period. However the five months period of single moving average calculation is better because even there is a little difference in MSE of total area, it is not really significance so it is still applicable as  a consideration  for  forecasting  rate production.Keywords: Moving Average, Single Moving Average, forecast, production rate, crude oil
Co-Authors Felisitas Defung Megawati Megawati Musdalifah Azis Siti Hernita Oktavia