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Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx Riko Hendrawan; Ariful Ulya
Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia Vol 23 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Telkom University.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011

Abstract

The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER
Comparing Black-Scholes and GARCH Models in Long Strangle Option Strategies for LQ45 Index Hendrawan, Riko; Safar, Abdul
Research of Finance and Banking Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): October 2023
Publisher : SAN Scientific

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58777/rfb.v1i2.137

Abstract

This study compared the Black-Scholes and GARCH models in a long strangle strategy applied to the LQ45 index using closing price data from 1998 to 2021. It aimed to assess the benefits, calculate returns during crises and non-crisis periods, and evaluate performance through Average Mean Square Error (AMSE). The Black-Scholes model consistently outperformed GARCH in one- and three-month options. One-month options had an average return of 28.64%, and three-month options, 43.31%. In crises, Black-Scholes delivered average profits of 43.36% for one-month and 45.14% for three-month options. In non-crisis conditions, profits averaged 26% for one-month and 42.84% for three-month options. Model performance varied by option type and market context. Black-Scholes excelled in one-month call options (1.268% error), while GARCH performed better in one-month put options (1.0981% error). For three-month options, GARCH outperformed in call options (1.270% error), and Black-Scholes dominated put options (3.117% error). In summary, the choice between models should consider market conditions, favoring GARCH during crises and Black-Scholes in non-crisis scenarios.
Optimizing Profitability: The Impact of Cash, Receivables, Inventory, and Working Capital Turnover Fitriyani, Maya; Hendrawan, Riko
Research of Economics and Business Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): MARCH 2025
Publisher : SAN Scientific

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58777/reb.v3i1.291

Abstract

The aim of the research is to determine the effect of cash turnover, accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover and working capital turnover on profitability, both partially and simultaneously. The research method used is a quantitative research method and uses secondary data taken from manufacturing companies, especially Food and Beverages, which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research sample selected was 15 companies for the period 2018 to 2022 based on the purposive sampling method. This research analysis method uses panel data regression with a significance level of 5%. The research results show that the variables cash turnover, accounts receivable turnover, inventory turnover and working capital turnover simultaneously influence profitability. Furthermore, partially, cash turnover and inventory turnover do not have a significant effect on profitability; accounts receivable turnover and working capital turnover have a significant effect on profitability. Managerial implications indicate that company management must focus on increasing the efficiency of cash, receivables and inventory turnover, as well as optimizing working capital turnover to increase profitability. Managers need to develop effective strategies for managing cash flow and current assets to maximize company profits.
Can We Validate the Value? Valuing Automotive and Component Sub-Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesia STOCK Exchange during the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis Soelistyo, Alex; Hendrawan, Riko
International Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business and Education Research Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022): International Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business and Education Rese
Publisher : Future Science / FSH-PH Publications

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11594/ijmaber.03.02.09

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive fundamental-based value analysis of firms using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation (RV) approaches. This study reveals how these approaches behave in valuing firms during a crisis such as the one caused by the current covid-19 pandemic and how to validate the results as well as correct them if the results was invalid. The object of the study is companies in the automotive and component sub-sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2020. The company's historical financial data between 2016 and 2020 are used to predict its financial behavior over the next five years under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. From the study employing the DCF method, the following results were obtained: ASII and INDS stocks were overvalued in all scenarios, GJTL were undervalued in all scenarios, and SMSM were overvalued in pessimist and moderate scenarios while undervalued in optimist scenario. Correction upon intrinsic values of SMSM and ASII is required since the result from RV analysis imply that the DCF results of both companies are not entirely valid, which indicates that the pandemic crisis has significantly affected the value of both companies. Investment recommendations for both ASII and INDS were to sell the stocks while for both SMSM and GJTL were to buy the stocks.
Optimal Stock Portfolio Establishment with Active and Passive Strategy Using Price to Book Value and Price Earning to Growth Ratio Approach in IDX30 Index 2013-2018 Period Alimuddin, Almand Fuad; hendrawan, Riko
Devotion : Journal of Research and Community Service Vol. 4 No. 9 (2023): Devotion: Journal of Research and Community Service
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/devotion.v4i9.559

Abstract

The volatility phenomenon of stock returns shows the return and risk faced by investors in investment activities. One method that can be used by investors to get maximum profit while compressing the risk into the minimum level is by diversifying its investments through portfolios. This study aims to determine the simulation results of optimal stock portfolio establishment with active and passive strategy using Price to Book Value and Price Earning to Growth ratio approach and the results of the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen performance evaluations on the established portfolio. This research appertains in quantitative research. The object of the research was the IDX30 Index and 17 of 30 companies which consistently classified into the IDX30 Index for the 2013-2018 period were selected as the research sample. The results showed that High PEG consistently provides better than the average returns and risks, whether in passive strategy, annual’s active strategy, or semester’s active strategy. Whereas, High PBV in the passive and annual's active strategy showed a high rate of return above the average, while in the semester active strategy, showed the lowest level of risk. Overall the semester's active strategy has the highest accumulated rate of return with a relatively low rate of risk. This result match with the purpose of optimal portfolio establishment. Moreover, the results of the performance evaluation showed that in the semester's active strategy, High PEG gives the best score based on the results of the performance evaluation of Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen index.
Speed Of Adjusment Of Capital Structure Of Cement Companies In Indonesia Wibowo, Teguh Arie; Hendrawan, Riko
Action Research Literate Vol. 7 No. 2 (2023): Action Research Literate
Publisher : Ridwan Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46799/arl.v7i2.139

Abstract

Pertumbuhan konsumsi semen domestik di Indonesia mengalami tren peningkatan pada tahun 2010-2017 dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi sebesar 17,7% di tahun 2011 dan 7,6% di tahun 2017. Total Pendapatan dan Laba Bersih (NI) pada empat perusahaan semen di Indonesia yaitu Semen Indonesia, Ltd, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Ltd, Holcim Indonesia, Ltd dan Semen Baturaja, Ltd pada tahun 2013-2018 menghasilkan tren Laju Pertumbuhan Majemuk Tahunan (Compound Annual Growth Rate/CAGR) sebesar + 1,0% dan -18,4%. Oleh karena itu, penelitian yang berfokus pada Speed of Adjustment (SOA) struktur modal perusahaan semen pada tahun 2013-2018 sangat penting untuk dilakukan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa SOA pada Debt Equity Ratio (DER) adalah sebagai berikut: yang tercepat adalah Semen Indonesia, Ltd (-916,99%) dan Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (-210,45%), sedangkan yang terendah adalah Holcim Indonesia, Ltd (9987,90%) dan Semen Baturaja (955,03%). Selain itu, SOA yang mengalami penurunan Debt Asset Ratio (DAR) tercepat berturut-turut adalah Semen Baturaja (-2307%), Semen Indonesia (-831%), Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (-320%), dan yang terendah adalah Holcim Indonesia (8.787%).
Analyzing Indonesian Cement Companies’ Efficiency Using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis Method Period 2014-2018 Afina, Syadza; Hendrawan, Riko
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Vol. 2 No. 10 (2023): Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/ijoms.v2i10.589

Abstract

Cement industry is one of the important industries in supporting the country’s development. However, the level of cement utilization in Indonesia in 2014–2018 experienced a fluctuating growth. In 2014–2016, the decreased revenue growth had been followed by the decreased growth in net profit margin and return on assets, while the increased revenue growth in 2016–2018 was not followed by the increased growth in net profit margin and return on assets. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the company’s efficiency to maintain its performance. The results of this study indicate that the variable of raw materials cost had a significant negative effect on efficiency, variable of labor cost, total assets, revenue, and interest rates had significant positive effects on efficiency, while return on equity and return on assets had no significant effect on efficiency. The most efficient cement company was Semen Indonesia, Ltd with a value of 0.93609 and the least efficiency one was Semen Baturaja, Ltd with a value of 0.09772.
Tire Company’s Valuation in Using Free Cash Flow to Firm and Relative Valuation Method Adrianov, Bobby; Hendrawan, Riko
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Vol. 2 No. 11 (2023): Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/ijoms.v2i11.624

Abstract

Tire company shares are considered to be the most prospective in 2018. This is related to the increasing level of tire exports, especially to Europe. Goodyear Indonesia (GDYR), Gajah Tunggal (GJTL), and Multistrada Arah Sarana (MASA) are three listed companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2014-2018. This thesis analyzes the intrinsic price of shares in the Tire Sub-Sector using the Discounted Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) Method and the Relative Valuation (RV) approach, so that interested parties or investors can assess how the third issuer's position shares. The basis of the estimation is an analysis of the financial statements of the three companies in the period 2014 to 2018, to conduct a fair valuation of shares in 2018 and an extension of the estimated share price in 2019. With the DCF-FCFF approach, the results show that GDYR shares are overvalued in all scenarios. GJTL's share price is also overvalued in the Optimistic and Moderate scenarios, but the Pessimistic scenario is overvalued. Meanwhile, MASA's share price is overvalued in all scenarios. With the PER approach, the results show that GDYR & MASA's shares are in an overvalued position in all scenarios. However, GJTL shares are in an overvalued position in all scenarios. With the PBV approach, the results show that the share price of GDYR & MASA are in an overvalued position in all scenarios. However, GJTL's share price is overvalued in all scenarios.
Adjustment Speed of the Capital Structure in the Telecommunication Industry in Indonesia Year 2013-2018 Putra, Fikri Dzuraeka; Hendrawan, Riko
Journal of Social Research Vol. 2 No. 10 (2023): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v2i10.1407

Abstract

In 2013, telecommunications companies in Indonesia relied significantly on debt loans as a source of funding, with an average capital structure of -11.51%. The highest increase was observed in 2015, reaching an impressive 99.20%. Given this fluctuation, it becomes imperative to conduct research focusing on the adjustment speed of the capital structure in telecommunications companies during the period from 2013 to 2018. The research findings indicate varying rates of adjustment in capital structure, particularly in terms of Debt Equity Ratio (DER). The fastest adjustment was seen in XL Axiata at -19.14% and Indosat at -1.62%, while Telkom Indonesia exhibited a slower adjustment rate at 36.72%, and Smartfren Telecom had the slowest adjustment at 51.96%. Similarly, when considering the Debt Asset Ratio (DAR), XL Axiata displayed the swiftest adjustment at -17.63%, followed by Telkom Indonesia at -9.05%, and Indosat at -3.11%. In contrast, Smartfren Telecom had the most gradual adjustment, with a notable value of 71.70%. These findings underscore the dynamic nature of capital structure in the Indonesian telecommunications sector during the specified period. The varying speeds of adjustment in debt ratios reflect the strategic financial decisions made by these companies in response to market conditions and internal factors. Further analysis is essential to comprehend the factors influencing these diverse adjustment rates and their implications for the industry's financial stability.
Comparative Analysis of Black-Scholes and Garch Model in Rupiah and American Dollar with Short Strangle Strategy from 2009 to 2018 Hadiana, Riza; Hendrawan, Riko
Journal of Social Research Vol. 2 No. 10 (2023): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v2i10.1431

Abstract

Foreign exchange transaction remains the most liquid trade in the world (Settlements, 2019). This paper examined the exchange rate of the US Dollar against Indonesian Rupiah at which volatility recorded the highest average of 1.98% and the lowest of 1.98% between 2009 and 2018. It shows that the existence of uncertainty or risk for economic actors. According to economists, the thing to protect the value of assets is by using available derivative products, The Option. The first model used for forecasting and determining the Option values is the Black-Scholes Model that uses historical volatility and some GARCH model to determine volatility. In this study, the object of the exchange rate of the US Dollar with Rupiah was comparing to two models using the average mean square error, and see how small the error results obtained. The results of the comparison of those two models found that during a month, the Black Scholes model had smaller errors for call and put values with a percentage of profits using a short strangle strategy was 83.75%. In contrast, over 2 months, the GARCH model showed better for call and put values with a profit percentage was 71.62%. Finally, the Black-Scholes model got a way better for call and put supplies with a percentage of the profit of 72.04% within 3 months.