Hari Kusnanto
Departemen Biostatistik, Epidemiologi dan Kesehatan Populasi, Fakultas Kedokteran, Kesehatan Masyarakat dan Keperawatan, Universitas Gadjah Mada

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Risiko kematian pada kasus-kasus leptospirosis: data dari Kabupaten Bantul 2012-2017 Meliana Depo; Hari Kusnanto
Berita Kedokteran Masyarakat (BKM) Vol 34, No 6 (2018)
Publisher : Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (235.93 KB) | DOI: 10.22146/bkm.34878

Abstract

Purpose: Leptospirosis is a major public health problem in tropical countries with potentially fatal systemic complications and multi-organ dysfunction. Leptospirosis is endemic in Bantul area. This study aimed to identify the major risk of the factors which contribute to the mortality of leptospirosis patient in Bantul area during 2012-May 2017. Methods: This study using case-control study design with ratio 1:3, 32 cases and 96 controls. The collected data were the manifestation of clinic and laboratory findings from the medical records of leptospirosis patient during 2012-May 2017 in Bantul District Hospital. The inclusion criteria in this study was based on pertinent clinical and epidemiological data and positive serology, patient who domiciled and living in Bantul District Area. The data were analyzed using Fisher test, Chi-square, and multiple logistic regression. The data processed using STATA Software version 13.1. Results: A total of 128 patients were included, with mean age 50.9±12.5 years; 75% (n=96) were male. The mean length from onset symptoms to admission was 4.5±2.27 days. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that four dominant factors were significantly independent associated with mortality, icteric, myalgia, dyspnea and thrombocytopenia. Conclusion: The presence of dyspnea, myalgia, icterus, and thrombocytopenia (<100.000/µL) on admission in patients with leptospirosis indicated high risk of death.AbstrakTujuan: Leptospirosis adalah masalah utama kesehatan masyarakat yang dapat mengakibatkan komplikasi dan disfungsi multi organ yang berpotensi fatal. Bantul merupakan wilayah endemik leptospirosis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor dominan dan mengidentifikasi besarnya risiko dari faktor yang berkontribusi terhadap terjadinya kematian pada pasien leptospirosis di Kabupaten Bantul pada periode 2012-Mei 2017. Metode: Penelitian ini menggunakan rancangan desain kasus kontrol dengan perbandingan 1:3 yaitu 32 kasus dan 96 kontrol. Data yang dikumpulkan adalah manifestasi klinik dan hasil pemeriksaan laboratorium menggunakan rekam medis pasien leptospirosis pada periode 2012-Mei 2017 di rumah sakit Kabupaten Bantul. Kriteria inklusi dalam penelitian ini adalah ada riwayat terpapar lingkungan yang terkontaminasi leptospirosis, hasil positif pemeriksaan serologi, dan pasien berdomisili dan menetap di wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Analisis data menggunakan uji fisher test, Chi square dan multivariate logistik regresi. Pengolahan data menggunakan software STATA versi 13.1. Hasil: Total sampel adalah 128 pasien leptospirosis, 96 (75%) adalah laki-laki, rata-rata umur pasien leptospirosis adalah 50.9±12.5 tahun. Rata-rata lama demam sebelum masuk rumah sakit yaitu 4.5±2.27 hari. Analisis multivariat dengan logistik regresi menunjukkan terdapat 4 variabel dominan yang berhubungan dengan kematian pada pasien leptospirosis di Kabupaten Bantul yaitu ikterik (p-value=0.006; OR=7.78; 95%CI=1.786-33.925), myalgia (p-value=0.005; OR=5.20; 95%CI=1.659-16.317), sesak (p-value=0.028; OR=3.176; 95%CI=1.130-8.920) dan trombositopenia (p-value=0.019; OR=3.99; 95%CI=1.261-12.639). Simpulan: Keberadaan sesak, myalgia, ikterik, dan trombositopenia (<100.000/µL) merupakan faktor risiko prognosis buruk (meninggal) pada pasien leptospirosis di Kabupaten Bantul.
Pemetaan daerah kerawanan penyakit leptospirosis melalui metode geographically weighted zero inflated poisson regression Agus Salim Arsyad; Hari Kusnanto
Berita Kedokteran Masyarakat (BKM) Vol 34, No 7 (2018)
Publisher : Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1089.128 KB) | DOI: 10.22146/bkm.35050

Abstract

Mapping leptospirosis vulnerable areas through a geographically weighted zero-inflated poisson regressionPurpose: Gunung Kidul Health Office reported an increase of leptospirosis cases in 2017. There are many zero values in the data count, so the mean and variance values must not be met. Zero-Inflated Poisson regression is used for modeling data counts that are mostly zero. The study aims to map leptospirosis vulnerable areas.Method: A total of 144 villages were analyzed. The independent variables were percentages in paddy fields, residential land, settlement distance to rivers, population density, soil texture, altitude, and rainfall. The dependent variable was the number of leptospirosis cases in each village from 2011 to 2017.Results: The average of leptospirosis cases was 0.6 and the variance was 3.4. Observation data with value of zero was 81%. The Geographically Weighted Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression test was better than Zero-Inflated Poisson multivariate regression in mapping of leptospirosis vulnerable areas. The model brought up local variables in the percentage of paddy fields, percentage of residential land, percentage of settlement distance to river, place height, and rainfall and global variables in the form of population density and soil texture (R-Square = 55.9%). This vulnerability modeling was appropriate based on disease distribution and level of vulnerability. Only 5.5% of leptospirosis cases in the area were not vulnerable.Conclusion: The sentinel leptospirosis surveillance system should be applied in areas prone to early detection of leptospirosis cases.