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Overconfident Behavior in a Security Market, the Implication of Self Deceptive Behavior in Price Discovery Processes â A Market Experiment Kufepaksi, Mahatma
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 23, No 1 (2008): January
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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People may suffer from overconfidence in their daily activities. According toÂ psychological research, less informed individuals may suffer from overconfidence. EmpiricalÂ research shows that investors suffer from transaction losses due to overconfidence. ThisÂ current research is an experimental research project that addresses these issues. According toÂ the research design, all investors are classified into three groups based on their scores ofÂ overconfidence, namely the less informed investors, the rational (average) investors, and themore informed investors. In order to observe the responses of the groups of investors whenÂ they receive valuable information, the research employs four different types of treatmentsÂ consisting of the condition of no market information, the provision of guidance of securityÂ prediction, the good news and the bad news.The research demonstrates that the less informed investors are inclined to assess theÂ precision of their knowledge and information excessively so that they produce a higher meanÂ of prediction and price errors than those of the more informed investors in all experimentalmarket sessions, except in the market session of good news. The phenomenon indicates thatÂ less informed investors conduct a self deceptive behavior. The result of the research alsoÂ shows that although the less informed investors have higher mean of prediction or priceÂ errors, they have a chance to gain profit as long as they are able to deliver the predicted valueÂ of the security accurately which is closer to the market price that reflects the expected price ofthe majority of the market players.Keywords: Overconfidence, self-deception, price (prediction) error; transaction losses

DO OVERCONFIDENT INVESTORS TRADE EXCESSIVELY IN THE CAPITAL MARKET? EVIDENCES IN AN EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH SETTING Kufepaksi, Mahatma
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 26, No 2 (2011): May
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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The existence of overconfident investors in capital markets has been the subject of muchÂ researches in the past. Using the market data, these previous researches demonstrates thatÂ overconfident investors tend to trade excessively, leading to losses. The currentÂ experimental research addresses these issues in the Indonesia Capital Market. According toÂ its methodology, participants are classified into three groups based on their score ofÂ overconfidence: moderate, more overconfident, and less overconfident investors. TheÂ research design employs the state of no available market information, good news signals,Â and bad news signals as treatments. The result demonstrates that the more overconfidentÂ investors perform higher trading value than those who are less overconfident in all artificialmarkets leading to transaction losses, except that in the bad news market. In that bad newsÂ market, the more and the less overconfident investors gain profits, and the moderateinvestors suffer from trading losses.Keywords: overconfidence, excessive trading, profit and loss

The Effect of Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), Company Size, And Debt To Equity Ratio (DER) on Glamor Stock Return in Manufacturing Companies Listed on The Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2010-2020 Period Putri, Fentia Ramadhani; Kufepaksi, Mahatma
International Journal Of Education, Social Studies, And Management (IJESSM) Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): The International Journal of Education, Social Studies, and Management (IJESSM)
Publisher : LPPPIPublishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52121/ijessm.v3i2.168

This study aims to examine the effect of the Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) variable, firm size, Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) on the glamour stock return in manufacturing sector companies for the 2010-2020 period. The type of data used in this study is quantitative data. This research method is in the form of causal-comparative with data testing technique based on descriptive statistical tests, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression tests and hypothesis testing. The sampling technique uses the saturated sampling technique metho in Non-Probability Sampling and produces 27 companies as research samples. Based on the analysis of this study it is known that the Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) has a positive effect on the return of glamor stock as evidenced by the results of the regression test of 0.098 and the t test of 0.006. Firm size has a significant positive effect on glamor stock returns as evidenced by the results of the regression test of 2.542 and the t-test of 0.001. Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) has a significant negative effect on the return of glamor stock as evidenced by the results of the regression test of -0.161 and the t-test of 0.000.

The Influence of Managerial Ownership, Company Growth and Profitability on Dividend Policy in LQ45 Companies 2019-2021 Magdalena Napitupulu, Maria; Hasnawati, Sri; Kufepaksi, Mahatma
Economic Education and Entrepreneurship Journal Vol 7, No 1 (2024): Economic Education and Entrepreneurship Journal (E3J)
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Lampung

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Dividend policy is a decision about how much of current earnings will be paid out as dividends rather than retained earnings which will then be reinvested in the company. dividend policy can be measured through the dividend payout ratio (DPR). The ratio shows the percentage of the company's earnings that are paid out to shareholders in cash. Companies that have a high DPR and increase from year to year can provide positive signals to investors, because dividend announcements can be used as information by shareholders regarding company performance. This study aims to determine the effect of managerial ownership, company growth, profitability on dividend policy in LQ45 companies 2019-2021. This research is quantitative research. The data used is also secondary data taken from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the form of financial reports of LQ45 companies listed on the IDX. Based on the results of data analysis and discussion of the effect of Managerial Ownership, Company Growth, and Profitability on Dividend Policy in LQ45 companies 2019 - 2021, it can be concluded. The managerial ownership variable has no effect on dividend policy as proxied by the dividend payout ratio. The company growth variable affects the dividend policy proxied by the dividend payout ratio. This indicates that any increase or decrease in total assets during the observation period affects the dividend to be distributed to shareholders. The profitability variable has no effect on dividend policy proxied by the dividend payout ratio.Keywords: Managerial Policy, Company Growth, Profitability, Dividend PolicyDOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/E3J/ v7i1.34-42

The Influence of the Board of Commissioners, Institutional Ownership, and Managerial Ownership on the Firm Value of Non-Banking State-Owned Enterprises Prasetyo, Deny; Kufepaksi, Mahatma; Dalimunthe, Nindytia Puspitasari
EKALAYA : Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Ekalaya : Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi
Publisher : CV. Kalimasada Group

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59966/ekalaya.v3i1.1743

This study examines the influence of corporate governance mechanisms—specifically the Board of Commissioners, Institutional Ownership, and Managerial Ownership-on the firm value of non-banking state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2023. Using a panel data regression model based on purposively selected samples of 15 firms over a ten-year period, the results indicate that while institutional and managerial ownership significantly enhance firm value, the size of the board of commissioners does not exert a statistically significant effect. The findings highlight the importance of active monitoring by institutional investors and alignment of managerial interests with shareholders in improving corporate performance. These insights contribute to understanding effective governance practices in SOEs and offer practical recommendations for policy-makers aiming to enhance transparency and accountability within Indonesian state-owned enterprises.

Testing Market Efficiency in Response to Management Board Announcements by Daya Anagata Nusantara Risnawati, Risnawati; Kufepaksi, Mahatma
Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah Vol. 7 No. 10 (2025): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Publisher : Intitut Agama Islam Nasional Laa Roiba Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47467/alkharaj.v7i10.9913

This study aims to examine the efficiency of the Indonesian capital market regarding the management board announcement of Badan Pengelola Investasi Daya Anagata Nusantara (BPI Danantara) on March 24, 2025. Using an event study method with the integration of market model and Markov Switching Regression (MSR) to overcome estimation bias due to confounding events, the research analyzes 15 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the IDXBUMN20 index during a 6-day period (2 days before to 3 days after the announcement). The variables measured are abnormal return and trading volume activity. The research findings reveal that the BPI Danantara management board announcement contains valuable information, as evidenced by significant abnormal returns on the announcement day (t0), the first (t+1) and second (t+2) days after the announcement, supporting semi-strong form market efficiency. There is a significant difference in abnormal returns before and after the announcement, and the market perceives the announcement as good news, as evidenced by a change from negative value of average abnormal return (-0.021174) before the announcement to positive (0.063311) after the announcement. The BPI Danantara management board announcement statistically does not affect stock trading volume activity from before to after the announcement.

The Influence of Managerial Ownership, Company Growth and Profitability on Dividend Policy in LQ45 Companies 2019-2021 Magdalena Napitupulu, Maria; Hasnawati, Sri; Kufepaksi, Mahatma
Economic Education and Entrepreneurship Journal Vol 7, No 1 (2024): Economic Education and Entrepreneurship Journal (E3J)
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Dividend policy is a decision about how much of current earnings will be paid out as dividends rather than retained earnings which will then be reinvested in the company. dividend policy can be measured through the dividend payout ratio (DPR). The ratio shows the percentage of the company's earnings that are paid out to shareholders in cash. Companies that have a high DPR and increase from year to year can provide positive signals to investors, because dividend announcements can be used as information by shareholders regarding company performance. This study aims to determine the effect of managerial ownership, company growth, profitability on dividend policy in LQ45 companies 2019-2021. This research is quantitative research. The data used is also secondary data taken from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the form of financial reports of LQ45 companies listed on the IDX. Based on the results of data analysis and discussion of the effect of Managerial Ownership, Company Growth, and Profitability on Dividend Policy in LQ45 companies 2019 - 2021, it can be concluded. The managerial ownership variable has no effect on dividend policy as proxied by the dividend payout ratio. The company growth variable affects the dividend policy proxied by the dividend payout ratio. This indicates that any increase or decrease in total assets during the observation period affects the dividend to be distributed to shareholders. The profitability variable has no effect on dividend policy proxied by the dividend payout ratio.Keywords: Managerial Policy, Company Growth, Profitability, Dividend PolicyDOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/E3J/ v7i1.34-42

Capital structure, company liquidity, and company size on company value mediated by credit risk Reza, Ahmad Khairul; Kufepaksi, Mahatma; Jubaedah, Jubaedah
Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023): Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/ijoms.v3i1.706

This study uses quantitative secondary data to determine the effect of capital structure, company liquidity and company size on company value with credit risk as a mediation variable. The researcher used quantitative approach with descriptive quantitative design. The population of this study is banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2010-2020 totaling 29 banking companies. The data used is a panel data regression method using the eviews version 10 application. Sample selection using full sampling. The results obtained show that (1) Capital structure has a positive effect on company value, (2) Liquidity does not affect company value, (3) Company size does not affect company value, (4) Credit risk does not affect company value, (5) Capital structure has a negative effect on credit risk, (6) Liquidity does not affect credit risk, (7) Company size has a positive effect on credit risk, (8) Credit risk is not proven as an intervening variable in banking companies in Indonesia.

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