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All Journal Jurnal Gaussian
Ria Epelina Situmorang
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro

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PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO SAHAM DENGAN METODE MARKOWITZ DAN PENGUKURAN VALUE AT RISK BERDASARKAN GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE (Studi Kasus: Saham Perusahaan The IDX Top Ten Blue 2017) Ria Epelina Situmorang; Di Asih I Maruddani; Rukun Santoso
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 7, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (459.802 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v7i2.26655

Abstract

In financial investment, investors will try to minimize risk and increase returns for portfolio formation. One method of forming an optimal portfolio is the Markowitz method. This method can reduce the risk and increase returns. The performance portfolio is measured using the Sharpe index. Value at Risk (VaR) is an estimate of the maximum loss that will be experienced in a certain time period and level of trust. The characteristics of financial data are the extreme values that are alleged to have heavy tail and cause financial risk to be very large. The existence of extreme values can be modeled with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV). This study uses company stock data of The IDX Top Ten Blue 2017 which forms an optimal portfolio consisting of two stocks, namely a combination of TLKM and BMRI stocks for the best weight of 20%: 80% with the expected return rate of 0.00111 and standard deviation of 0.01057. Portfolio performance as measured by the Sharpe index is 1,06190 indicating the return obtained from investing in the portfolio above the average risk-free investment return rate of -0,01010. Risk calculation is obtained based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) if you invest both of these stocks with a 95% confidence level is 0,0206 or 2,06% of the current assets. Keywords: Portfolio, Risk, Heavy Tail, Value at Risk (VaR), Markowitz, Sharpe Index, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV).