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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Kadim Martana
Ministry of Environment and Forestry
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Impact of Increase on the Inter Household Transfers on the Economy in Indonesia Wisnu Winardi; Hadi Susanto; Kadim Martana
Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik Vol 8, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian, Badan Keahlian DPR RI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22212/jekp.v8i1.691

Abstract

In these recent years Indonesian economy has gained a robust growth coupled with declining unemployment rate and poverty rate. However, the achievement is still flawed by persistent problem of income distribution. As a large country with heterogeneous population that bound by strong cultural and religious values, Indonesia has underlying factors to improve the situation. One of the important factors is inter household transfers. This research aims at identifying economy-wide impacts of increased inter household transfers as a reflection of better social care on some aspects of national economy. This research utilized CGE model with 2008 Indonesia Social Accounting Matrix as database and analyzed the model with the assumption of long term period of simulation result. Results suggest that increased inter household transfers brought about positive changes in all household income, improved government income, fixing price level as well as distributional income. Furthermore, the shocks cause adjustment in the national economic structure on expenditure, particularly on household consumption and investment. Share of household consumption to GDP is expected to slightly decrease, while that investment is to increase. These findings indicate that the increased household transfers are worth conducting from the view point of social aspects as well as economic aspects. 
THE IMPACT OF WORLD CPO PRICE CHANGE TOWARDS PRICES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA Wisnu Winardi; Hadi Susanto; Kadim Martana
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (635.335 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v11i2.66

Abstract

Paper ini menganalisis dampak perubahan harga CPO dunia terhadap harga-harga, aktivitas ekonomi, dan distribusi pendapatan rumah tangga di Indonesia dengan pendekatan model CGE. Model pertama mengasumsikan Indonesia tidak mampu memengaruhi harga, sedangkan model kedua mengasumsikan Indonesia mampu memengaruhi harga. Data utama yang digunakan bersumber dari Tabel Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2008. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa apabila Indonesia berperan sebagai penerima harga, peningkatan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak pada penguatan nilai tukar, penurunan tingkat harga, dan meningkatkan aktivitas ekonomi, namun sedikit mengurangi kemerataan distribusi pendapatan. Di sisi lain, penurunan harga CPO dunia akan memberikan dampak yang sebaliknya. Apabila Indonesia dapat berperan memengaruhi harga, perubahan harga CPO dunia diperkirakan akan berdampak sama dengan bila Indonesia tidak dapat memengaruhi harga, namun dengan nilai perubahan yang relatif lebih kecil. Hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa Indonesia sebaiknya dapat berperan sebagai penerima harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi meningkat dan berperan memengahuhi harga ketika harga CPO dunia bertendensi turun. This paper analyzes the impact of world CPO change price towards prices, economic activities, and household income distribution using CGE Models. The first model assumes that Indonesia is a price taker, while the second model assumes that Indonesia could influence the price. The main data were taken from Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2008. The simulation results suggest that if Indonesia takes the role as a price taker, an increase in world CPO price will affect exchange rate, decrease prices, and improve economic activities, but it slightly worsened household income distribution. On the other hand, a decrease in world CPO price will bring about the opposite impacts respectively. Conversely, if Indonesia takes the role as a main price influencer, world CPO price change will lead to a similar result with less magnitude impacts. These findings suggest that Indonesia should be able to take the role as a price taker when world CPO price is increasing and as a main price influencer when world CPO price is decreasing.
Co-Authors Hadi Susanto Wisnu Winardi