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All Journal Economics and Finance in Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic and Finance in Indonesia
Firman Mochtar
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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The Trilemma, Inflation and Central Bank Balance Sheet: The Case of Indonesia Ikhsan, Mohamad; Affandi, Yoga; Mochtar, Firman
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 60, Number 2, 2012
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (28.873 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v60i2.70

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Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia Mochtar, Firman; Affandi, Yoga
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 61, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movements of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rates changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate systems since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.
Hubungan Perilaku Simpanan Masyarakat di Perbankan dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Mochtar, Firman
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This study shows that an increase in economic funding that comes from saving fund in the banking sector doesn't have a full impact on the slower economic growth in the subsequent period as Keynesian believes. Tests result show that a decrease in public saving in banking sector reflects an increase in the confidence of the economic agents on the future economic prospects which then drives the economic growth. This result is supported by the negative and significant relationship of economic growth and public saving in the form of individual rupiah denominated deposit (time deposits?). Using Permanent Income Hypothesis argument,the result indicates that we can use individual deposit as one of the leading indicators of future economic growth based on significant finding until 2 trimester in the future. On the other hand, positive and significant relationship of economic growth and public saving which is proposed by the Keynesian only applied to rupiah denominated individual and firm demand deposit and individual saving account.
Co-Authors Affandi, Yoga Affandi, Yoga Arief Hartawan Charles PR Joseph Ikhsan, Mohamad Janu Dewandaru Pribadi Santoso Yoga Affandi