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All Journal Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan
Maulina Latifah
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan HAKLI Semarang, Indonesia
Environmental Science

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Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Sebagai Model Peramalan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue Roro Kushartanti; Maulina Latifah
Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan Vol 10 No 2 (2020): Oktober
Publisher : POLTEKKES KEMENKES MANADO

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47718/jkl.v10i2.1165

Abstract

ARIMA is a forecasting method time series that does not require a specific data pattern. This study aims to analyze the forecasting of Semarang City DHF cases specifically in the Rowosari Community Health Center. The study used monthly data on DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in 2016, 2017, and 2019 as many as 36 dengue case data. The best ARIMA model for forecasting is a model that meets the requirements for parameter significance, white noise and has the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error Smallest) value. The results of the analysis show that the best model for predicting the number of dengue cases in the Rowosari Public Health Center Semarang is the ARIMA model (1,0,0) with a MAPE value of 43.98% and a significance coefficient of 0.353, meaning that this model is suitable and feasible to be used as a forecasting model. DHF cases in the Rowosari Community Health Center in Semarang City.
Co-Authors Roro Kushartanti