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All Journal Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Norwati Mustapha
Universiti Putra Malaysia
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Ensemble neural networks with input optimization for flood forecasting Mohd Khairudin, Nazli; Mustapha, Norwati; Mohd Aris, Teh Noranis; Zolkepli, Maslina
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 13, No 5: October 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/eei.v13i5.6863

Abstract

Machine learning model has been widely used to provide flood forecasting including the ensemble model. This paper proposed an ensemble of neural networks for long-term flood forecasting that combine the output of backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and extreme learning machine (ELM). The proposed ensemble neural networks model has been applied towards the rainfall data from eight rainfall stations of Kelantan River Basin to forecast the water level of Kuala Krai. The aim is to highlight the improvement on accuracy of the forecast. Prior to the development of such ensemble model, data are optimized in two steps which are decomposed it using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) to reduce variations in the rainfall series and selecting dominant features using entropy called mutual information (MI) for the model. The result of the experiments indicates that ensemble neural networks model based on the data decomposition and entropy feature selection has outperformed individually executed forecast model in term of RMSE, MSE and NSE. This study proved that the proposed method has reduce the data variance and provide better forecasting with minimal error. With minimal forecast error the generalization of the model is improved.
The research on the signal source number estimation algorithm Peizhi, Wang; Mohamed, Raihani; Mustapha, Norwati; Manshor, Noridayu
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 36, No 1: October 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v36.i1.pp188-196

Abstract

In array signal processing, Estimating the quantity of signal sources represents a crucial area of investigation. In this paper, a comprehensive introduction and analysis of the estimation methods for determining the number of signal sources are presented, including the background and significance, and the significance of precise estimation of the quantity of signal sources. The influence of factors such as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), noise background, and number of snapshots on the estimation algorithm is discussed in detail. At the same time, common array models are introduced. Then, different signal source number estimation algorithms are analyzed in detail, and their respective advantages and applicable conditions are pointed out. Finally, the performance of each algorithm in different situations is evaluated by comparing the performance of the algorithms under different SNRs, snapshot numbers, and array elements. The experimental results show that with the increase of the SNR and the number of array elements, the correct estimation probability of the algorithm also increases correspondingly, which provides a reliable experimental basis and performance evaluation for the estimation.
Hybrid machine learning model based on feature decomposition and entropy optimization for higher accuracy flood forecasting Mohd Khairudin, Nazli; Mustapha, Norwati; Mohd Aris, Teh Noranis; Zolkepli, Maslina
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 10, No 1 (2024): February 2024
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v10i1.1130

Abstract

The advancement of machine learning model has widely been adopted to provide flood forecast. However, the model must deal with the challenges to determine the most important features to be used in in flood forecast with high-dimensional non-linear time series when involving data from various stations. Decomposition of time-series data such as empirical mode decomposition, ensemble empirical mode decomposition and discrete wavelet transform are widely used for optimization of input; however, they have been done for single dimension time-series data which are unable to determine relationships between data in high dimensional time series.  In this study, hybrid machine learning models are developed based on this feature decomposition to forecast the monthly water level using monthly rainfall data. Rainfall data from eight stations in Kelantan River Basin are used in the hybrid model. To effectively select the best rainfall data from the multi-stations that provide higher accuracy, these rainfall data are analyzed with entropy called Mutual Information that measure the uncertainty of random variables from various stations. Mutual Information act as optimization method helps the researcher to select the appropriate features to score higher accuracy of the model. The experimental evaluations proved that the hybrid machine learning model based on the feature decomposition and ranked by Mutual Information can increase the accuracy of water level forecasting.  This outcome will help the authorities in managing the risk of flood and helping people in the evacuation process as an early warning can be assigned and disseminate to the citizen.
Co-Authors Manshor, Noridayu Mohamed, Raihani Mohd Aris, Teh Noranis Mohd Khairudin, Nazli Peizhi, Wang Zolkepli, Maslina