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Budiono Sri Handoko
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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DAMPAK KRISIS EKONOMI TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTOR INDUSTRI: PENDEKATAN MODEL KESEIMBANGAN UMUM TERAPAN INDORANI Y. Sri Susilo; Budiono Sri Handoko
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (JIEB) Vol 17, No 3 (2002): July
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (243.932 KB) | DOI: 10.22146/jieb.6721

Abstract

This paper tries to examine the impact of economic crisis on industry performance during 1997 - 1998. The performance was measured in terms of value added, employment, domestic prices, and exports volume. The method used in this research was simulation with INDORANI Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE Model). The results of the simulation were then crosschecked with the data provided by BPS, field survey, and others preliminary research.The results of this research show that in general, the economic crisis has a negative impact on industry performance. The negative impact consists of the increasing domestic prices, decreasing value added and export volume, lower production for domestic market, and lower rate of employment. Howewer, domestic resources-based and/or export oriented industries (such as food and beverages, plywoods, chemicals and non-ferrous industries) have better negative impacts compared to import resource-based and domestic-oriented industries (such as iron and steel, and machinery industries).Keywords: economic crisis, industry performance, INDORANI CGE-Model.
DAMPAK PENURUNAN SUBSIDI BBM TERHADAP KINERJA SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL: PENDEKATAN MODEL KESEIMBANGAN UMUM TERAPAN Budiono Sri Handoko; Y. Sri Susilo
Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (JIEB) Vol 15, No 1 (2000): January
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (214.876 KB)

Abstract

The main purpose of this article was to investigate impact of fuel subsidy reduction to sectors/industries and regional in the short run and the long run. Sectors/ industries effect in this case will be looked at from  value added, domestic price, energy price and employment. In this case regional, effect will be looked from aggregate output and employment. This study used INDORANI Applied General Equilibrium Model. Economics Study Inter University Center (Pusat Antar Universitas Studi Ekonomi) Gadjah Mada University with collaboration from IMPACT Project, Monash University, Australia, has been developed INDORANI Applied General Equilibrium Model since early 1997 for Indonesian economy. Data and model of INDORANI has been revised several times. The new version is INDORANI 9571, which is developed from input-output 1995 (I-O 1995). Statistic CenterBoard (Badan Pusat Statistik) produces I-O 1995. In this new version, government sector has been broken-down based on activity type of development sectors. Environment side has been added in the model. With that expansion INDORANI model has extended scope to be used as policy analysis tools. This study used INDORANI 9515 version, which is simplified from INDORANI 9571. INDORANI 9515 aggregates 71 sectors to 15 sectors.  From analysis of simulation result, it could be concluded that fuel subsidy reduction (40%) makes negative impact to sectors/industries and regional in main indicators. From sector side, fuel subsidy reduction causes value added and employment decreasing, increasing of domestic price in almost all-economic sectors. The greater impact can be looked in fuel refinery sector and followed by transportation, medium and big manufacture. In nearest all provinces in Indonesia there were output reduction and employment decreasing because of fuel subsidy reduction. Riau, Southern Sumatra, Eastern Kalimantan gets the greatest impact. The smallest impact reach by DKI Jakarta.
Co-Authors Y. Sri Susilo