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All Journal Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Journal of Business and Management The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration
Anggoro Budi Nugroho
School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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Macroeconomic Stress-Test and Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Industry Credit Risk: An Example from The US Market Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Vol 10, No 1 2011
Publisher : SBM ITB

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Abstract

This paper seeks to implement simple stress-test analysis using OLS method to understand banking industry sensitivity to macroeconomic risk in US financial market from 2005 to 2008.Some observations made upon a couple of variables such as exchange rates of five world currenciesto US dollar, short and long-term US Treasury Bills rates, US inflation rate, the central bank's discount rate, and other two sort of banks' interest rates being bank primeloan and home mortgage rate.These independent variables were estimated in four different constructs for their influence to delinquency risk,, the type of credit risk that banking industry is basically dealing with in common. The findings resulted in fact that Australian Dollar (AUD) is the riskiest currency to banks's credit loss during the period. Similar positive impact were aalso shown by the bank primeloan rate, and federal funds rate, meaning that US central bank's monetary policy still has significant impact to the industry's basic risk.. When exchange rates observation window was extended to further previous year, Japanese Yen was found the most volatile.Keywords: Credit Risk, Stress-Test, Macroeconomic Risks, Delinquency Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, Central Bank Discretion.
CEO Performance Measurements of PT ASTRA Otoparts Tbk 2007-2014 Budidharma, Aditya; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 10 (2015)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract - Two important roles that have crucial role in the company in order to keep the company running First are the agents who runs the business, the performance of the agents are usually represented by the Chief Executive Officer. Chief Executive Officer or CEO for short is the head leader of a company. It is also common for some companies to call CEO as President of Director. CEO or President of Director’s job description cannot be stated as a general because each company has their own policy. Second are the shareholders or the financiers who have the capital in order for the company to keep on going. The fund that is given is represented in stocks. The relationship between agents and shareholders is concluded in the Agency Theory. Agency theory addresses the relationship where in a contract ‘one or more persons (the principal(s)) engage another person (the agent) to perform some service on their behalf which involves delegating some decision making to the agent’. Problems will arise if there is a difference of interest between the agent and shareholders. Keywords: Agency cost, stock prices, Chief Executive Officer, Shareholders
Dividend Payout Ratio in Indonesian Consumer Goods Industry: Panel Analysis and Determinant Factors in 2004-2013 Sinabutar, Alexander; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 4 (2015)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract- Many study about dividend policy has been done, but still being a contradiction until now. This research conducted to know the determinant factors of dividend payout ratio in Indonesian consumer goods industry sector between 2004 and 2013. There are several factors selected in this research, such as return on assets, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, market to book value, sales growth and firm size. In order to identify the relationship between selected factors with dividend payout ratio, author conduct assumption test and panel regression analysis toward the collected data. Research result shows that return on assets, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, market to book value, sales growth and firm size simultaneously have significant effect on dividend payout ratio. The result also shows that return on assets, current ratio, market to book value and firm size have a positive relationship on dividend payout ratio. While sales growth and debt to equity ratio have a negative relationship on dividend payout ratio. However sales growth is the only factor that significantly affect dividend payout ratio. Besides that research result shows that the value of adjusted r-squared is 64.46%. Keywords: Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR), Return on Assets (ROA), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Current Ratio (CR), Market to Book Value (MBV), Sales Growth, Firm Size, Consumer Goods Industry
The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility to Corporate Profitability (ROA) and Stock Return Hakim, Hilmi Farizan; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 6 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract

– This research objective is to find out the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) expense towards company profitability (ROA) and stock return in each different business sectors. This research used purposive sampling to select the companies. The company that became the sample in this study is LQ 45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period Q1 2009 to Q1 2014, the best nine companies in different business sectors, both private and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Data used in this study is the documentary data, quarterly financial reports of the company. Study took data from the best LQ 45 Company in each sector during the study period. In this study, there are two dependent variables and one independent variable. The dependent variables are profitability (ROA) and stock return. The independent variable is CSR expense. The results of this research are: (1.) CSR expense has a positive significant effect toward profitability (ROA) in six companies (LSIP, INTP, ASII, UNVR, PGAS, and BMRI), has a negative significant effect toward profitability (ROA) in three companies (PTBA, LPKR, and UNTR), (2.) CSR expense has a positive significant effect toward stock return in all nine companies (LSIP, INTP, PTBA, ASII, UNVR, LPKR, PGAS, BMRI and UNTR).Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Profitability, Return on Assets, Stock Return
Economic Internal Rate of Return and Sensitivity Analysis in Water Treatment Plant Project Evaluation Miranti, Khadijah Ayu; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 6 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract

In 2014 the increased clean water service only reach up to 50% of the total population in Indonesia, or about 160.000 l/s. The needs of a lot improvement in this sector make clean water as business commodity. PT. TeknoTirta Nusantara (TTN) and PDAM KabupatenSerang are interested to developing the quality and quantity of clean water supply in KabupatenSerang. This research are to calculate the investment feasibility study, conducting risk analysis through sensitivity analysis method, assessing the performance of the company using economic value added method, last to identify and measure of financial risks that threaten a company or projects (risk mapping).Keywords: clean water, feasibility study, sensitivity analysis, economic value added, risk mapping.
Measuring Bankruptcy Risk in Indonesian Contemporary Industries: Implementing Altman's Z-Score Framework Pramono, Wisnu Bayuaji; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 2, No 3 (2013)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Financial analysis is used to give a broader picture and an understanding of a company business activity and operations. Financial analysis will help investors, creditors and shareholder answers the impending question about the company, Does the company liquidity situation is good? Can the company meet its obligations? Does the company rely too much on the debt? Can the company maximize the profits from its assets? In addition, financial analysis can reduce our reliance on hunches, intuition and guesses and reduces our uncertainty and unwanted when making decisions. Therefore to by using the analytical tools and technique of the financial analysis, one can reduce risk and project the future performance of the company within a given industry. The Altman Z-score model is mathematical for the creditworthiness of the company; the Z-score is a result of scientific investigation into the prediction of a possibility of bankruptcy of a company. This study will aim to find the equation model and the Z-score for each company in Indonesian contemporary using the multiple regressions analysis. The companies used in this research are from each sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange, furthermore the companies are the ones that are included in the LQ-45 from the period February until July 2013. The research will use the Altman’s framework and use multiple linear regressions to generate model that is compatible for each company. The study results shows that from nine companies that are tested for the Z-score, six of the companies is safe from bankruptcy, but action should be taken to avoid the risk of bankruptcy. The companies are Astra International with Z-score of 2.19, Aneka Tambang with Z-score of 1.89, Sentul City with 2.41, Indofood Sukses Makmur with Z-score of 2.18, Mitra Adiperkasa with 2.33 and Semen Gresik with 1.88. (Z-score 1.81 to 2.99). The other three companies, BW Plantation with Z-score 0.84, Jasa Marga with 0.96 and Bank Danamon with 0.61 is in the distress zones, which means the company can be categorized as highly likely to be bankrupt. Keywords: Altman Z-score, bankruptcy, financial analysis, financial ratios.------------------DISCLAMER: This paper is created by undergraduate students of School of Business and Management ITB in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the degree Bachelor of Management. Journal of Business and Management is not responsible for the content, opinions, or any other materials expressed here.
Operational Risk management of Production in PDAM Semarang City Adityoso, Raden Gunung; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 3 (2015)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract - Risks is the part of human life. Everybody in this world cannot avoid risks. Every activities always connected and associated to the risks. Even its small thing like walking in pedestrian has risk like falling or tripping or big thing like government policy, which is related to lives of many people. One that associated in the lives of many people is water, water cannot be separated from human life because every person in the world needs water to live. One of the companies that provide clean water for people is PDAM or Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum. PDAM is local owned company that has function to supply clean water for citizen of the region, in this case is city. Semarang City also has its own PDAM to meet the needs of its residents of clean water. In carrying out its function, PDAM Semarang also cannot be separated from risks. One of the main part in PDAM Business is production. Without production, PDAM Semarang will not be able to provide clean water for Semarang City residents. This study has three objectives, to determine, analyze and mitigate the operational risks in production of PDAM Semarang especially in Water Treatment Installation 1 who served in Sampangan, Semarang. The results of this study can be used as material for evaluation for PDAM Semarang to face these kind of risks in the future so the company can minimize the impact and losses of the risks. The method used in this study is Monte Carlo Simulation. This analysis is used to predict potential probability and severity of each risk. The probability and severity of each risks simulated compared to the probability and severity for the past 4 years. By comparing the risks simulated and history risks, the writer can determine whether the risk have major impact or not for production. The results reveal that some risks have low probability and severity such as flooding, high water turbidity, production machines problems, red raw water, sedimentation and blackout. These risks can be accepted and retained by PDAM Semarang City because they got low impact. Risk that has high probability and low severity is high cost employee when holiday, this risk recommended to be transferred to contractor or outsourcing company so PDAM doesn’t get impact anymore. For the risk that has high probability and severity is pipe distribution leak will be recommended to be reduced.  Key words: Operational risk management, Monte carlo simulation, PDAM Semarang City, Risk mitigation
DIVIDEND AND NON-DIVIDEND FACTORS EFFECT ON STOCK PRICE IN THE INDONESIAN STATE OWNED BANK: PT. BANK NEGARA INDONESIA SHARE PRICES PERIOD 2007-2018 Abiazka, Hifzhan; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 7, No 3 (2018)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract.Indonesia has experienced significant growth with the major development of infrastructure under the new government’s policy of Nawacita. This has opened the door for the growth of a number of critical sectors, one of which is the banking industry. The growth of the banking sector has been shown by the increase in its stock prices. BNI share prices had been on the rise in the past decade. However, BNI share prices began to fall into a bearish trend from March until September 2015. It is from this crucial period that the researcher would like to study the effect of dividend pay-out towards the stock price of BNI, as well as other non-dividend factors that may contribute to the price of stock, those factors being ROE, EPS, NIM, NPL Gross, NPL Nett, LDR, and BOPO. This research uses annual data of BNI dividend pay-out with monthly data of BNI share price that span from 2013 to 2018. As for non-dividend factors with share price, both variables uses BNI quarterly data from 2007 to 2017. The results shows that NIM and NPL Gross have a negative impact on stock price, while only LDR showed a positive impact. Dividend also showed a strong correlation with stock price. These results indicate that dividend is a highly considered factor for investors, as opposed to its financial performance in the financial reports. Therefore, based on the results, BNI and its investors should consider the dividend pay-out as it can impact the stock price.Keywords: Bank, Stock price, Dividend, Non-Dividend factors, Correlation.
Analysis on Electronic Money Transactions on Velocity of Money in ASEAN-5 Countries Kartika, Venna Tri; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 9 (2015)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract. The purpose of this study is to analyze the electronic money transactions on velocity of money in ASEAN-5 countries from 2010 to 2014. For the electronic money, the data used is the volume of transactions. For the gross domestic product and money supply (M1), the data used are currency from each country that has been converted into US dollars. This study uses panel data model, classical assumption test (heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity test), and goodness of fit test (coefficient determination, f test, and t test) to analyze the relationship between electronic money transactions with gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money. The results of this study indicate that the volumes of electronic money transactions are increasing in ASEAN-5 countries, while the velocity of money are decreasing. The gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money have positive and significant relationships to electronic money transactions for 0.34%, 0.10%, and 0.49% in ASEAN-5 countries. On coefficient of determination test (R2), it shows that 98.41% of dependent variable (electronic money transactions) can be explained by independent variables (gross domestic product, money supply (M1), and velocity of money). Since there is a positive trend in electronic money transactions, the rapid development of non-cash instruments, and a significant relationship between electronic money transactions to GDP, money supply (M1), and velocity of money in all ASEAN-5 countries, including Indonesia, the society should relatively be ready to get into a cashless society. Keywords: electronic money, GDP, M1, velocity of money, panel data model
Synergy Valuation of PT Indofood Sukses Makmur In Acquisition Towards PT Pepsi Cola Indobeverages Kurniawan, Vinley Angelica; Nugroho, Anggoro Budi
Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 8 (2015)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract

Abstract .This research is conducted to evaluate whether decision made by PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur was the right thing to do to increase firm value through acquiring PT Pepsi Cola Indobeverages. Benefit consideration gained by PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur for this takeover are cost saving, time saving, and all resources ready to be used by the time this acquisition was established. It was a great opportunity for PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur as new player in Indonesian beverage market to also earned business network chain that PT Pepsi Cola Indobeverages used to have.Synergy value for this acquisition activity calculated from information in press-release news that has become expectation for company future target has resulted increasing. In 2012 synergy value amounts in Rp3,862,409,077,069 has increased to amounts Rp4,169,928,210,000 in 2015.Moreover, feasibility study of this proposed acquisition activity also tested with NPV and IRR calculation. NPV result for this proposed acquisition activity was Rp3,832,115,754,137 which means it was economically feasible and should be accepted. IRR result was 25.72%, higher than its Cost of Capital 23.96%, which means this project is potentially feasible to increase value of the firm and should be accepted. According to Pro-Forma Income Statement, if there is no change in annual increasing of percentage of sales, company’s target to achieve net profit of Rp 5 trillion in year 2017 would not be able to be achieved. To suppress cost, PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur should targeting optimal sales target and efficient operating activity in which cost can be minimized.
Co-Authors Abiazka, Hifzhan Aditya Budidharma, Aditya Alexander Sinabutar, Alexander Alif Anandata Issadi, Alif Anandata Arasyan Albar, Arasyan Aysa Nawazir, Aysa Benhard Martin Pasaribu Dimas Satrio Rubiyoso Doddy Rachmat Faishal Ahmad Farrosi Hilmi Farizan Hakim Khadijah Ayu Miranti Raden Gunung Adityoso, Raden Gunung Venna Tri Kartika, Venna Tri Vinley Angelica Kurniawan, Vinley Angelica Wisnu Bayuaji Pramono