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Nanang Widodo
Peneliti Stasiun Pengamat Dirgantara Watukosek,LAPAN
Education

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PREDIKSI JANGKA PENDEK BULANAN JUMLAH FLARE DENGAN MODEL ARIMA (p,d,[q]), (P,D,Q)132 Nanang Widodo
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The time series of the monthly of flares from January 1965 to December 2004 is analyzed by ARIMA models. It is suggested that there is any auto correlation between monthly data in regular and seasonal order (11 years solat activity cycle) in the ARIMA (p,d[q]), (P,D,Q)132 models. After several of feasibility test had successed and the assumption of stationary in mean and variance was obtained, we can determine the model i.e; ARIMA (1,1,[13])(0,1,1)132 and ARIMA (0,1,[13])(0,1,1)132. From this models, we can use to predict the monthly number of flares.
ANALISIS EVOLUSI GRUP SUNSPOT SPD WATUKASEK UNTUK MEMPEROLEH INDIKATOR KEMUNCULAN FLARE Nanang Widodo; Nur Aeni; - Sudarji; Ahmad Sodikin; - Marlan
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (896.305 KB)

Abstract

In their evolution, sunspot groups change in its number, area, shape and its formation. Proper motion of sunspot group show twist and shear movement. Therefore, we measure the central position it preceding and following parts. The difference of angle between the preceding and following part in the evolution on (n + 1) thand n may indicated that in its evolution the sunspot group have changed the area. We suggest some indications for predicting flare using the maesurement of twist and shear of the spot in a group.
Co-Authors - Marlan - Sudarji Ahmad Sodikin Nur Aeni