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Earth & Planetary Sciences

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Verifikasi Parameter Presipitasi Akumulasi 24 Jam pada Model Cuaca Numerik Tahun 2017-2020 Kiki kiki
Megasains Vol 12 No 2 (2021): Megasains Vol.12 No.2 Tahun 2021
Publisher : Stasiun Pemantau Atmosfer Global Bukit Kototabang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (161.934 KB) | DOI: 10.46824/megasains.v12i2.54

Abstract

Parameter presipitasi akumulasi 24 jam dari empat model numerik yang terdapat dalam operational tool Synergie, yaitu GFS, IFS, ARPEGE, dan WRF, diverifikasi menggunakan data observasi permukaan harian di 34 titik kajian yang mewakili setiap provinsi di Indonesia. Tiga metode verifikasi yakni dikotomi, multikategori, serta metode verifikasi untuk parameter kontinu digunakan untuk mengukur performa masing-masing model dalam memprediksi kuantitas curah hujan harian dalam periode tahun 2017 hingga 2020. Berdasarkan hasil kajian model IFS menunjukkan performa terbaik disetiap pengkategorian yang dilakukan dibandingkan dengan 3 model cuaca numerik lainnya.
ANALISIS MUSIM SIKLON TROPIS 2021/2022 DI SAMUDRA HINDIA SELATAN INDONESIA Kiki kiki
Megasains Vol 14 No 1 (2023): Megasains Vol.14 No.1Tahun 2023
Publisher : Stasiun Pemantau Atmosfer Global Bukit Kototabang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46824/megasains.v14i1.110

Abstract

The tropical cyclone season in the Indian Ocean south of Indonesia every year takes place from November to April. The cyclone season in 2021/2022 is predicted to experience an above normal, with the number of tropical cyclones predicted to grow as many as 15 systems. Meanwhile, based on the climatological average, there will be 10 tropical cyclones that will develop in each tropical cyclone season. However, during the period from November 2021 to April 2022, only 8 tropical cyclones were developed in this basin, with 1 of them born within the area of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta. With a statistical method approach and descriptive analysis of tropical cyclone climatological data, predictions of the outlook for the tropical cyclone season in 2021/2022, and cyclogenesis data from TCWC Jakarta, it can be concluded that the tropical cyclone season in 2021/2022 tends to be below normal by 65% to 80 %.
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