Mohamad Samsul
Universitas Airlangga

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KINERJA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN MEAN-VARIANCE ANALYSIS DALAM SIKLUS PEMULIHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA Mohamad Samsul
Journal of Management and Business Vol 4, No 2 (2005): SEPTEMBER 2005
Publisher : Department of Management - Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitas Surabaya.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (7586.685 KB) | DOI: 10.24123/jmb.v4i2.88

Abstract

This study tried to know the performance difference that result from Treynor model, Sharpe model, Jensen model, and Treynor & Black model during the Indonesia's recovery period. The study takes 331 stock that listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange in last 2004. The data used are montly data of individual stock price index every end of the month from December 2002 till September 2005. The rate of SBI in normal condition was 1% per month used as risk free rate.Mean Variance Analysis used in this study, regarding to the 4 models above. Monthly average return calculated for each stock, then averaging for 33 months. The formula of the 4 models adjusted from mutual fund study to individual stock study. The hypothesis is there is difference of stock performance between Treynor model, Sharpe model, Jensen model, and Treynor and Black model in Indonesia's recovery period.The result shows that Treynor model and Sharpe model gives 148 or 45% stocks have average 3% return, and this is above the market return. Jensen and Treynor and Black model gives 138 or 42% stocks have return above the market. Treynor model and Sharpe model give 225 or 68 % stocks are undervalued, wether the Jensen model and Treynor and Black resulting 169 and 170 or 51% stocks are undervalued. Monthly return rate each stock is 6,1% (Treynor model and Sharpe model) and 7,3% (Jensen and Treynor and Black model). The statistics show that the return from these model are not significantly different (in 5%o error) for all undervalued stocks. But if performance measurement use return base on stock's preferencial in each model, then Jensen model has significant higher return in the same sample (equal or less than 75 sample). The benefit of these 4 model are to make stock's rating and then choose which stocks are the portofolio.
SELEKSI KINERJA SAHAM TERCATAT DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL JENSEN PADA MASA TRANSISI SIKLUS EKONOMI Mohamad Samsul
Journal of Management and Business Vol 5, No 1 (2006): MARCH 2006
Publisher : Department of Management - Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitas Surabaya.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (10927.135 KB) | DOI: 10.24123/jmb.v5i1.189

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to select the undervalued stock based on the Jensen's model approach. Data used is monthly stock return for 24 months during period of the year 2004 to 2005. Population used is 314 kind of stocks. The result of stock selection shows average undervalued stock of 53 or 17% of stock available for the year 2005. By experiment of 6 kind of initial set, 1 month lead time and 12 time training set, the result shows that the Jensen's model is not enough accurate to estimate the return for the next one month. The average monthly expected return of 13,7% and actual return of 2,9% shows the difference statistically significant. Eventhough, the actual return 2,9% still higher than market return IHSG BEJ of 1,6% on the monthly average. The correlation between the past stock performance and the future stock return is negative and not significant. The difference between return of high past stock performance and low past stock performance is not significant. The correlation between past beta and stock return is not significant. The difference between return of high past beta and low past beta is not significant.