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Wong Ming Nok
LCH Surveyor Ltd
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Bankruptcy Prediction of Industrial Industry in the UK Wong Ming Nok
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 1 No. 1, March 2017
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (632.127 KB) | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v1i1.1-26

Abstract

We make comparison between 6 models including (1) Altman’s (1968) z-score; (2) Model 1: z-score model with adjusted coefficients; (3) Model 2: z-score model with modified variables; (4) Model 3: dynamic logic model; (5) Merton distance to default (DD) model (Bharath & Shumway, 2008) and (6) back-propagation network model (Lippman, 1987). We assess the relative information content of these models regarding their bankruptcy prediction capability. Our tests show that dynamic logic model and DD model both provide significantly more information than the others while DD model has the highest prediction accuracy in the out of sample test. It is also worth noticing that altering coefficients and adjusting variables of the original z-score model could not significantly improve the predictive power of z-score model regarding companies in the industrial industry in the UK.
Bankruptcy Prediction of Industrial Industry in the UK Wong Ming Nok
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 1 No. 1, March 2017
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v1i1.1-26

Abstract

We make comparison between 6 models including (1) Altman's (1968) z-score; (2) Model 1: z-score model with adjusted coefficients; (3) Model 2: z-score model with modified variables; (4) Model 3: dynamic logic model; (5) Merton distance to default (DD) model (Bharath & Shumway, 2008) and (6) back-propagation network model (Lippman, 1987). We assess the relative information content of these models regarding their bankruptcy prediction capability. Our tests show that dynamic logic model and DD model both provide significantly more information than the others while DD model has the highest prediction accuracy in the out of sample test. It is also worth noticing that altering coefficients and adjusting variables of the original z-score model could not significantly improve the predictive power of z-score model regarding companies in the industrial industry in the UK.
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