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David Umoru
Edo University Iyamho
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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External Debt and Agricultural Production in Nigeria Wilson Ebhotemhen; David Umoru
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 3 No. 1, March 2019
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (290.591 KB) | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v3i1.1-14

Abstract

Over time, Nigeria has experienced upsurge in external debt stock and several studies have estimated negative impact of growing external debt on economic growth. On sectoral basis therefore, our study proceeds to evaluate such impact of external debt on growth of agricultural production in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 to 2017. For this purpose, we utilized co-integration being test instrument and ECM to investigate link among variables used. The empirical results reveal that external debt failed to yield increase in output returns in agricultural productivity by its inverse association with agricultural output. This indicates that acquired external loans for agriculture within period of study were not optimally utilized for same resolve. Hence, we advise that Nigerian government should demonstrate sound commitment to effective debt management in order to ensure foreign loans are suitably channeled and healthily utilized for purpose acquired for as this would equally guarantee that the output returns would be sufficient for debt service obligation and balance to promote growth in other sectors of Nigerian economy.
Determination of Optimal Size of Government in Relation to Output Growth in Nigeria: A Monte Carlo Simulation Evidence David Umoru; Janet A Onimawo
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 4 No. 2, June 2020
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v4i2.139-160

Abstract

This paper attempted to estimate optimal size of public sector that prompts positive output growth in Nigeria based on Monte Carlo simulation of estimated parameters of an error correction model having controlled for regime effect. Our motivation derives from economic theory that absence of government could be injurious to output growth culminating in unavailability of contracts and public goods. Using different policy scenarios of public sector share in GDP, the study validates and supports the tenets of Rahn Curve that economy shrinks when government grows enormous as we found 40% public sector spending as proportion of GDP as optimal public sector size that stimulates positive growth rate of about 0.095% having controlled for regime effect. By implication, our original contribution in this study is amplified on our empirics that public sector role in Nigerian economy is less than or equal to 40%. Consequently, any size of public sector beyond forty percent is economically destructive as it capable of stimulating negative spill overs on the economy due to growing taxes and public debt repayment. Hence, public sector spending should be significantly less than forty percent or at most forty percent for purpose of economic growth. This indeed translates to enforcing responsible fiscal policy centred on forty percent public sector size
Do Fiscal and Monetary Policies Cooperate or Conflict with Each Other in Nigerian Economy? Harrison Ogbeide Eromosele; David Umoru
SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SIJDEB, Vol. 3 No. 1, March 2019
Publisher : Faculty of Economics, Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (580.575 KB) | DOI: 10.29259/sijdeb.v3i1.15-30

Abstract

The determination for this study was to ascertain if fiscal and monetary policies are cooperating or rather conflicting with each other in Nigerian economy. Government disbursement and growth of money stock were used to denote fiscal and monetary policy variables. Two reduced form equations of monetary and fiscal policies were specified from underlying structural model. This yielded fourteen RF parameters in contrast to eleven structural parameters and so we had system of over-identification. These prompted use of IV estimators such as GMM and 3SLS. Estimates show similar findings for both estimators as we found evidence that fiscal policy does not respond favourably to monetary policy as monetary policy was found to have an insignificant effect on the fiscal policy. More so, fiscal policy does not respond to lag effect of monetary policy. Relatively, monetary policy responds favourably to fiscal policy. The lag effect of money supply was also found to have a significant impact on money supply. Empirical finding so upholds that Nigerian economy is fiscally overriding notwithstanding money being an integral part of all macroeconomic variables. Significance of lag effects of both fiscal and monetary policy is reflection that implementation process of both policies is excessively time overshadowing. Consequently, there is need for building well-organized units of fiscal and monetary authorities that can accelerate implementation process of these policies.
Co-Authors Harrison Ogbeide Eromosele Janet A Onimawo Wilson Ebhotemhen