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Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga SBI, Exchange Rate, Ukuran Perusahaan, Debt To Equity Ratio dan Bond Terhadap Yield Obligasi Korporasi di Indonesia Surya, Budhi Arta; Nasher, Teguh Gunawan
Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Vol 10, No 2 2011
Publisher : SBM ITB

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Paper ini membahas analisis serempak pengaruh beberapa variable ekonomi seperti tingkat suku bunga SBI, exchange rate, ukuran perusahaan, debt to equity ratio dan bond rating terhadap yield obligasi korporasi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan jenis data panel, sehingga untuk memilih jenis model yang akan digunakan dilakukan beberapa pengujian. Pengujian awal yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah melakukan pengujian Chow-test untuk menentukan apakah metode pooled least square atau fixed effect dapat digunakan; serta pengujian Haussman-test untuk menentukan apakah metode fixed effect atau random effec dapat dipakai. Dengan memakai dua pengujian ini, kita dapatkan persamaan regresi umum pengaruh variable-variable ekonomi tersebut diatas terhadap yiel obligasi korporasi di Indonesia dengan tingkat signifikansi penerimaan yang bagus.Kata kunci: Analisis panel data, Chow-test, Haussmann-test, obligasi korporasi

Optimal Portofolio Analysis with Risk-free Assets using Index-tracking Portfolio Optimization Model Pinasthika, Nasha; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 7 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Constructing optimal portfolio to the desired expected return is one of the main concerns of every investor. This research aimed for constructing and comparing two approaches of stocks portfolio optimization model with an addition of risk-free assets on two different models. The classical Markowitz mean-variance model is further compared with an index-tracking model introduced by Edirisinghe. Additional risk-free asset in the portfolio is intended to give investors an option to lower the risk through diversification. The stocks analyzed for the research are stocks traded in Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) under the period of 2007 â€“ 2012. Results shown that additional risk-free asset lowers the risk significantly for both Markowitz and the index-tracking portfolios, with the index-tracking diversified portfolio has a lower risk than the benchmark index. The index-tracking portfolio also gives a higher beta than the Markowitz MV portfolio. This increase in beta depends on the index variance, in this case JKSE variance, and also the asset covariance matrix. During the back testing, the performance of both Markowitz MV portfolio and index-tracking portfolio do not track the index performance. However, the portfolios which use index-tracking method outperform the portfolios constructed using the Markowitz MV model.Keywords: Investment, Index-tracking, Portfolio Optimization, Mean-variance Optimization

Testing the Efficient market Hypothesis on Weak and Semi-Strong form in the Indonesian Stock market Rizkianto, Gita Denaya; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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The author tested the efficient market hypothesis on the Indonesian stock market by employing the serial correlation test to test the efficient market hypothesis on weak form level Ã‚Â and the Multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (Multifactor APT) to test the efficient market hypothesis on semi-strong form level. For the test on the semi-strong form, the author chose 8 stocks with the highest market capitalization from 8 different sectors of the LQ45 index as the dependent variables and the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index), oil price, inflation rate, and the foreign exchange rate as the independent variables. The author has 2 purposes in this final project. The first purpose is to test whether the Indonesian stock market is efficient on both weak form level of efficiency and semi-strong form level of efficiency. The second purpose is to give recommendation to investors in analyzing the Indonesian stock market. The results of this final project show that the Indonesian stock market is not weak form efficient and it is not semi-strong form efficient. This means that investors can gain abnormal returns by doing technical analysis on the historical movements and fundamental analysis. Although individually the JCI, oil price, inflation rate, and foreign exchange rate have low predictive power, they collectively possess predictive power over the stock return in the Indonesian stock market.Ã‚Â Key words: Efficient market hypothesis, weak form, semi-strong form, predictive power

Financial Feasibility Study of PT Jasa Medivest Refinancing Plan Muhammad, Ikhsan Armand; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 1, No 4 (2012)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Toxic Waste is always related in every single human activities, it will never separated from the human activities because toxic waste itself produce through the activities. For most of people, the main problem is in our country, most of the business empire did not have proper toxic waste management system that cause pollution. One of the toxic waste that happens to make some problem in the world is Medical waste, this type of waste is produce from every medical activity, it can happens from a giant hospital or Â private practice at home as long as there are a medical activity the happen in the area.Â PT. Java Medivest is one of pioneer in medical waste management business sector, it began to operate since March 2009, with operating one unit of incinerator that have a capacity of 12 ton/day. PT. Jasa Medivest established by Foreigners Capital, with 95% of the shares is held by Pantai edivest Sdn.Bhd, Malaysia and the other 5% is for PT. Jasa Sarana. Incinerator PT. Java Medivest is in Interchange Road Toll Dawuan, Dawuan Tengah, Karawang, Jawa Barat.Purpose: The objective of this research is to determine whether the Refinancing fo PT. Java Medivest is feasible or not.Design/methodology/approach: The data will be process and analyze by concluding the problem solving model based on the method of making a good feasibility study, this model is a common type of model of concluding feasibility study.Findings: Equity capital according to the Deed Decree of Shareholder No. 25 dated November 8, 2011 made before Mala Mukti, SH, LL, M, Notary in Jakarta, with the amount of Rp.448.291.000.000, 00, divided into 48.1 million shares, each share par value is Rp.9.320, 00 . The changes, issued and paid-up capital has received approval from the Investment Coordinating Board according to his letter No. 2742/A.8/2011 dated October 31, 2011. From the capital, have been issued and paid up for 25.04% or 12,043,369 shares with a total nominal value of Rp.112.244.199.080, 00 by the shareholdersWith the proposed sale of all the shares owned by Pantai Medivest Sdn Bhd, Malaysia, the PT. Jasa Sarana is the sole shareholder. But according to the provisions Act of Limited Liability Company No. 40 of 2007, later than 6 (six) months after becoming the sole owner, PT. Jasa Sarana must release ownership of shares to investors. However PT Jasa Sarana committed will remain the majority shareholderOriginality/value: As a conclusion, the NPV of this project is Rp.2.728.182.294 and the IRR is 24,47%Keywords: Feasibility-Study; NPV; IRR; Payback-Period; Refinancing, Medical WasteCategory: Finance

Forex Trading for Beginner With Using Simple Moving Average as Main Indicator and Bollinger Bands as Support and Resistance in GBP/USD TF H1 Period July 2012 - December 2012 Sjahbunan, Adam Ultra; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 2, No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Main goal of this thesis is, how to make the beginner trader can achieve a profit quickly and easily while investing in forex, just using basic technical analysis published by master forex on the internet namely is Kang_Gun or familiarly called KG_Forex and without using a broker. Â In this paper the author will use the basic theory published by KG_forex there are 4 types of Simple Moving Average as the main indicator and Bollinger Bands as a line of support or resistance. SMA 24 is useful to look at the price movement in the past period of 1 day, SMA 120 is useful to see movement in a past period of 1week, SMA 480 is useful to look at the price movement in a past period of 1 month and SMA 4 is useful to look at the price movement in past 4 hours . A cross between SMA 24 and SMA 4 and when prices have bounced back from the upper / lower Bollinger Bands. This is would be a signal for the beginning trader to perform open position. This basic method is compared with a more advanced method. This comparative method using 5 different types of Linear Weighted Moving Average as the main indicator and uses two types of Bollinger Bands as a line of support / resistance. After doing all the calculation in GBP / USD TF H1. Apparently comparative method will provide more profit than the first method. However the comparison method will give more ambiguous signal to the beginner traders. The results obtained by the first method is very adequate for beginner traders. When you do all these things in the first method with discipline they can get up to 11400 USD profit. For traders who are pretty experienced the authors suggest to propagate the information by increasing the number of indicators used and do not forget to always look for fundamental information. This thesis only focus only on GBP/USD in TF H1 using forex trading software namely Meta Trader 4. In period July 2012 â€“ Desember 2012. The outcome of this thesis the beginner trader can investing in forex future trading without using broker and they can get enough profit at he beginning. This research can prove the efficiency of KG basic method and its easy to use it.Â Keywords: forex, SMA, BB, LWMA, KG_forex, investing, trading, derivative,Â Category:Finance; derivative, forex

The Financial Feasibility Study of N219 Aircraft in Papua Lubis, Aliananda; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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The Republic of Indonesia has the largest archipelago in the world. With the geographical condition, however, there are still several areas that are isolated and difficult to reach, even not accessible by road. These conditions will make it difficult for the Government in an effort to build connectivity between areas in an attempt to equitable development. PT. Dirgantara Indonesia or known as Indonesian Aerospace (IAe) is developing a new aircraft, which is suitable for the mission of the pioneer air transportation. The aircraft is the N-219, which has capacity to carry 19 passengers and cargos and will entry into service in year 2017. The aircraft route that will be discussed specifically in this study is based in Timika, Mimika Regency, Papua. The total project cost and the revenue will determine the project calculation. Then the cost and the revenue will be used to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and as well as Payback Period (PBP). After all of the calculation is done, then the calculation of the Sensitivity Analysis will be made. Then, the result of the calculation which are NPV, IRR, and PBP will show the project whether it is feasible or not. This final project presents to readers a clearly vision of financial production of a turboprop aircraft. It will also help the potential airlines, which may be interested on buying this kind of aircraft in the future. As for the conclusion, the NPV of the project is USD 37,004,404.- , the IRR is 27.3% (which good because its greater than the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return), the Payback Period is 5 years 4 months (which is also good enough because it is still during the project lifetime). So from these results, it can be concluded that this project is feasible.Â Keywords: Aviation Routing, Feasibility Study, Sensitivity Analysis

Estimating the Company Value of PT Adaro Energy TBK: A coal Mining Company Mubarak, Mulham Anugrah; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 1, No 5 (2012)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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PT Adaro Energy Tbk is one of the major coal mining companies in Indonesia. It is currently Indonesiaâ€™s second largest thermal coal producer. PT Adaro Energy Tbk itself had been operated since 1992 in South Borneo but then it was still a small company that engaged in coal mining sector. This company releases its open public and offering period on July 8th until 10th 2008 and listed its shares in Jakarta Stock Exchange on July 16th 2008 with PT Danatama as the Underwriter. When established on July 28th 2004. this company has basic capital of IDR 8.000.000.000.00. From year to year since it was established. PT Adaro Energy Tbk has an excellent performance. In 2010. the production reaches 42.2 million tons and the sales reaches 2.7 million dollars. An excellent performance company surely has to maintain and always improve its performance. Therefore. a valuation is needed to measure the value of the company and knowing how to enhance the value. Author used three kind of approaches to estimate the value of the company. which are asset-based approach. income approach and market approach. Author will also determine the share value based on the value that had been determine using each approaches that have been told before.Â Purpose: The research is made to estimate the value of Â PT Adaro Energy Tbk and by that. knowing what should be done by the company depend on what shouldbe done by the company depend on what is the value of the company. Authow will use some valuation methods and techniques accordance with the company conditions and structures.Design/methodology/approach: The methods that used in this research paper were asset-based approach. income approach (Discounted Cash Flow). and market approach. Author will use the consolidated financial statements of PT Adaro Energy Tbk from year 2006-2011.Findings: Using those three kinds of approaches. author will find the estimated value. Then. after find the estimated value of the company. the stock value will be found by using the equation which will be used in analysis. The reasearch shows that the value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk is ranged between IDR 43.361.609.266.373.00 to IDR 354.399.618.736.223.00 and the stock value with the current share price IDR 1.460.00 (31 July 2012) is ranged Â between IDR 972.91 to IDR 10.378.65. This shows that PT Adaro Energy Tbk has a big potency to enhance its value and PT Adaro Energy Tbk is still a good choice to investors.Research limitations/implications: This research is focuses on determining the estimated value and share value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk. In one of the approaches. author will use the P/E ratio from the public coal mining industries which listed in IDX.Originality/value: This research paper contains about measuring the estimated value and share value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk using three approaches. This valuation is important in order if PT Adaro Energy Tbk wants to sell its assets or wants to do merger and acqusition. It also important for a company to enhance its company value.Keywords: Valuation;asset-based approach;income approach;discounted cash flow; market approachCategory: Finance

Stop Loss Order Performance Analysis Based on Value at Risk Using EGARCH (1,1) Model in EUR/USD Forex Trading Danar, Halley Miraj; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract.In forex trading, price movement can not be predicted and can be against what traders think. Loss is unevitable for traders, especially traders that use margin and leverage. Scalping is one of trading styles in forex market. Scalping style depends on the volume of transaction in forex trading. Scalping really depends on the accuracy of trading strategies in generating trading signal. Sometimes false signal occurs and to reduce the loss in trading, stop loss order may be an alternative to reduce the loss. This research\ emphasizes in determining stop loss order based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) in scalping trading style using moving averages cross over. 4 types of moving averages ; simple moving averages (SMA), linear weighted moving averages (LWMA), smoothed moving average (SMMA), and exponential moving average (EMA); are used to test how good VaR can be used as stop loss order. From trading simulation using 17785 EUR/USD data from December 2, 2013 until February, 28 2014, all of moving averages trading strategies may cause 38.6% average loss from beginning balance.VaR depends on the variance. 2 kinds of variance, conditional and unconditional, will be calculated and compared. Conditional variance calculated based on EGARCH (1,1) model based on 17785 EUR/USD data from December 2, 2013 until February, 28 2014 in 5 minutes time frame. Unconditional variance calculated based on the position of trading. From in-sample trading simulation, by using stop loss order based on VaR using EGARCH (1,1), the end balance will only have 15.08% average loss compare to 38.6% average loss without using any stop loss order. Using unconditional VaR as stop loss order will generate 31.84% average loss.Backtest conducted to test the performance of EGARCH (1,1) model as the basis in VaR calculation. Backtest conducted using 1000 period of EUR/USD data from March, 3 2014 until March, 6 2014 in 5 minutes time frame. From backtest trading simulation, stop loss order using VaR based on EGARCH (1,1) can reduce the loss to 1.515% from beginning balance from 4.785% loss when no stop loss order used averaged for all moving averages trading strategy. Unconditional VaR as stop loss order can only reduce the loss to 1.73% from beginning balance. It can be concluded that VaR based on EGARCH (1,1) can be used as stop loss order to reduce the loss occured during trading. To implement this model, it is recommended that this concept need to be combined with â€œExpert Advisorâ€ to reduce the time needed in calculation.Keywords: Value-at-Risk (VaR), EGARCH, Stop Loss Order, Forex TradingÂ

Project Analysis for Development Telkom University Dormitory as A Support Facility Putri, Dwi Kurnia; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 3, No 11 (2014)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract. World Class University is considered as a way of a Telkom University to be able compete in this globalization era. One of the supporting facilities to achieve goal of becoming the World Class University is providing the student dormitories. Dormitory can be a place for learning activities, socialize, and discuss, which is expected to increase student motivation to more achievement and beneficial to the world. Feasibility study is require to determine whether the investment is worth to executed and to convince the investors. It can be viewed from a variety of indicators such as PBP, NPV, IRR, ROI, and ROE. Next Â analysis is to perform a sensitivity analysis to see the effect of changing the volatile variable (inflation, revenue, proportion of debt, labor costs, and interest rates) to financial indicators such as NPV and optimal analysis to obtain the minimum number of dormitory occupants and minimum rental price dormitory that the project still feasible. Based on the results, the construction of student dormitories investment is feasible. The feasibility analysis generates a value of PBP 2 years 4 days, NPV Rp. 35,959,231,012, IRR 52.43%, ROI 13.93%, and ROE 39.79%. Sequentially, the variables that influence the change in NPV is inflation, revenue, proportion of debt, labor costs, and interest rates. Minimum number of dormitory occupied is 82% or 1542 students and minimum rental price dormitory is Rp. 5,200,000 per year. Implementation of this dormitory building process starts from feasibility analysis, bank selection and loan process, contractor selection, and process construction includes build structures, architectural, mechanical and electrical. This dormitory construction project can be completed within 16 months. Recommendation for this project,Â to increase the value of NPV, the company must have the ability to well negotiate with the investor in order to get maximum the proportion of debt, because of the cost of debt for the project is lower than the cost of equity.Keywords : Dormitory,Â NPV, IRR, sensitivity, optimal

Stress-Testing The Indonesia Economic Sectors by Shock on ITS Macroeconomic Variable ( An Analysis of Firm-Wide Probability of Default) Munich, Adrian; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 2, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Indonesia has kept its two years of living dangerously in 1997-99. During 1997-99Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s crisis, Indonesia had the most exceedingly awful impact contrasted with the other countries that encountered the Asian crisis. Ã‚Â The recovering cost, in both cash-worth cost and inarticulate expense, was greatly towering. This accompanying figure was depicting Indonesian real sectors and external sectors from 1994-2004. Several IndonesiaÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s real sectors and external indicators, since 1997-99Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s crisis until present, never fully-recovers to its previous low-rate condition. Economic downturn was authenticated by a decreasing wealth, parallels with the shrinkage of money power, for both buying and paying power. As we know, Indonesian 1997-99Ã¢â‚¬â„¢s economic crisis has made the rupiah, Indonesian currency, take its free fall against US Dollar. Thirty years of uninterrupted economic condition of a good country with its predictable economic growth rate in South East Asia, was shocked by its own foreign exchange rate.

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