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Uttiya Bhattacharyya
ITM University
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Transportation

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Modelling the Dynamic Air Transport Aviation Fuel Demand in India Uttiya Bhattacharyya; Dr Dhalla Rizwan Salim
International Journal of Supply Chain Management Vol 4, No 2 (2015): International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM)
Publisher : International Journal of Supply Chain Management

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (13.161 KB)

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic assessment of the aviation fuel demand and matches its supply in terms of price and quantity. It presents a perspective view of the aviation industry in terms of its contribution to the economy, challenges, aviation fuel demand and growth of passenger and freight traffic.A questionnaire survey is carried outto identify the various factors affecting the aviation fuel demand. Factor analysis is used to pick out the significant factors. A multiple regression model is developed to estimate the aviation fuel demand with factors like GDP, situations of negative publicity, price of fuel, competition from premium rail journey, promotions on tourism, cost of air freight, technological development in aircraft type and operation.Test data suggests that air passenger traffic and price of fuel are the main significant factors affecting aviation fuel demand in India. The model was validated with real data for FY 2011-12 with satisfactory results.The paper contributes in terms of a dynamic construct for aviation fuel demand assessment in India with introduction of a publicity index and concludes that the factors affecting the aviation fuel demand will change from time to time.
A Process Driven Dynamic Model for Petroleum Product Demand in Transportation Sector of India Uttiya Bhattacharyya; R S Dhalla
International Journal of Supply Chain Management Vol 3, No 1 (2014): International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM)
Publisher : International Journal of Supply Chain Management

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Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic process to identify factors influencing the demand of transport fuel in India. Factors like inter-fuel substitution by CNG, environmental concerns, economic outlook and price sensitivity must be incorporated in the demand estimation model. Differential subsidy in India on diesel and petrol affects its demand and the choice of vehicle ownership. A self designed questionnaire is used to survey and identify the factors affecting the demand for petrol and diesel. Multiple regression models are formulated for demand estimation of petrol and diesel with principal factors. Models are validated with real time data.
Co-Authors Dr Dhalla Rizwan Salim R S Dhalla