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All Journal Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Adrian D. Lubis
Kementerian Perdagangan
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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ANALISIS DAYA SAING DAN KESIAPAN INDONESIA DALAM RANGKA INTEGRASI ASEAN : STUDI KASUS AUTOMOTIVES, RUBBER BASED, DAN AGRO BASED PRODUCTS Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2406.823 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v5i1.117

Abstract

In AseAN economic community-Aec by 2015, Indonesia is predicted still left behind in competitiveness from other AseAN countries, particularly singapore, malaysia and thailand. Based on the AseAN trade data base, Indonesia has only 2 sector industry which have competitiveness from the 12 priority sector in Aec’s blue print. this paper aims, firstly, to analyse the impact of integration among AseAN countries on the performance of industrial linkages automotives, rubber based, agro based products in Indonesia. secondly, to determine the impact of liberalization among AseAN countries on a map of the competitiveness of automotives industry, rubber based, agro based products in Indonesia, thirdly, to know how the readiness the trade facilitation in sectors priority of automotives, rubber based and agro based products, and finally to determine the policy formulation of the priority sector in the preparation of the implementation of the Aec. the result suggest that almost of 3 industries, Indonesia is with low level IIt and competitiveness (RcAB). moreover, Indonesia still attracts FdI in order to increase the performance of IIt dan RcAB.
ANALISIS FLUKTUASI EKSPOR BEBERAPA PRODUK PERTANIAN INDONESIA DI NEGARA MITRA UTAMA Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (3373.131 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v5i1.120

Abstract

developing countries ha ve built special safeguard mechanism (ssm) proposal in order to protect their agricultural products. By using seasoality method test, mann-Kendall test, and control chart, the study found out that export pattern of Indonesia’s agricultural products is not in line with the existing ssm proposal. the agricultural products of coffee and tea showed significant seasonal pattern of export to India’s market. other agricultural products of cacao and its processed products also presented significant seasonal pattern of export to malaysia, singapore and china . Meanwhile, vegetable oil and fats did not show significant seasonal pattern of export to importing countries. on the ssm proposal, Indonesia should promote the minimum level of 19.92 persen, which is higher than developing countries proposal of maximum 10%.
DAMPAK LIBERALISASI WTO TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN BERAS DAN GULA Adrian D. Lubis; Reni K. Arianti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 5 No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (3042.605 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v5i2.124

Abstract

This paper goals are to study impact of trade liberalization and Indonesia capability to maintain national food security for rice and sugar. This study that uses multiregression analysis with dummy variabels and GTAP found that import of rice and sugar increase due are to lack of capability to fulfill national consumption. Therefore, Indonesia must increase its rice and sugar productivity to fulfill national food security in liberalization regime.
ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KINERJA EKSPOR INDONESIA Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1363.801 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v4i1.144

Abstract

Price and gross domestic product are always use as variables to predict the Indonesian export performance, and it is assumpted that aggragate price and gross domestic product will change 30 to 70 percent it’s performance. This study will build new another assumption to predict the Indonesian export performance. This study use multiregression analysist, and found that Indonesia export tiedly dependent on ten major partners. They are Australia, China, france, germany, Japan, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Thailand, united Kingdom and united States. Indonesia export performance to those partners is influenced by fluctuation of their GDP per capita. This study also found that the Indonesia export performance for agricultural and industrial goods in general depend on fluctuation of comodity price, gdp per capita, and real exchange rate.
ANALISIS KINERJA PERDAGANGAN SEKTOR ELEKTRONIK SEBELUM DAN SETELAH PELAKSANAAN CAFTA Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 4 No 2 (2010)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2117.408 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v4i2.154

Abstract

A lot of worries are emerging regarding to the negative impact of China ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) to domestic electronic industry. Yet, this kind of study using Trade Specialization Index, Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage and GTAP found that the trade deficit has occurred long before the implementation of CAFTA.Therefore, in order to encourage domestic electronic industry to improving its ability to take advantage of CAFTA implementation, government and private sector has to find win-win solution for producing some policies. These policies include cost production reducing, human source productivity increasing through some useful training and new technology application in producing high value added electronic products.
ANALISIS KEIKUTSERTAAN INDONESIA DALAM INISIATIF SEKTORAL UNTUK PRODUK PERIKANAN, KIMIA DAN KEHUTANAN Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 2 No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (6028.255 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v2i1.164

Abstract

Sectoral initiative is an alternative to obtain better market access through the deletion of tariffs for some products or certain sectors. The negotiations sectoral initiatives consists of 12 sectors, but in this study only focuses on three main sectors, namely fisheries, chemical and forestry. The analysis performed in this study using three approaches: 1. Effective Rate Protection (ERP; 2. Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA); and 3. General Equilibrium Models. The study found that the fisheries sector is the most ready to face the deletion of the tariffs because its relatively unprotect and competitive in the world. As for forestry products, tariff deletion in the sectoral initiative is expected will not provide benefits due to raw material shortages (moratorium) which reduces the competitiveness of Indonesia in the world. While chemical products today have high protection and less competitive, the deletion of the tariff is predicted will lead to an increase in imports. However, if the goal is to achieve cheaper raw materials in the chemical industry, this product is recommended to be include in sectoral initiatives. 
KELANGKAAN BAHAN BAKU UNTUK INDUSTRI PENGOLAHAN UDANG DI JAWA TIMUR Adrian D. Lubis
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 3 No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (4198.979 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v3i1.175

Abstract

Indonesia is one of a main shrimp producers in the world. But in last two years, some shrimp industries, especialy in East Java is  complained to raw material insufficiency, and continually require government to give permission to import. However, the government does not allow shrimp import to prevent the spread of white sport syndrome virus in Indonesia. The study found that the raw material scarcity is only happens in East Java. It also predct that Indonesia’s shrimp supply will increase in the future. The abundance of shrimp supply will make Indonesia is likely donot need shrimp import. However, some recomendation is needed for government to issue special policy in supply continuing in East Java.
Co-Authors Reni K. Arianti