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Ubaid ur Rehman Zia
Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad
Chemistry Control & Systems Engineering Earth & Planetary Sciences Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering

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Socio-Economic Prospects of Solar PV Uptake in Energy Policy Landscape of Pakistan Faraz ul Haq; Tanzeel ur Rashid; Ubaid ur Rehman Zia
International Journal of Renewable Energy Development Vol 11, No 4 (2022): November 2022
Publisher : Center of Biomass & Renewable Energy, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/ijred.2022.46082

Abstract

Despite global calls for climate change and its impacts in past decade, energy sector of Pakistan has remained highly dominated by high-cost carbon-intensive resources. Although a significant number of policies have been put forward by both provincial and federal government in last three years, the ground-level implementation of these policies is non-existent, and Pakistan’s progress is still far behind the developed countries. This study therefore performs a socio-economic analysis of solar PV potential in Pakistan and how recent policies can be mobilized to upscale the utilization of solar PV both as an on-grid and off-grid generation source. This also links to solar potential for corporate sector engagements in their Net-Zero Pathways. The methodological approach uses a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model designed for Pakistan’s Power System supplies under three different scenarios i.e., Energy Transition Scenario, Conventional Generation Scenarios, and Business as Usual Scenario. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2021) along with recent policies is used as the leading data source for driving the capacity additions. The results obtained from the model indicates that despite having a large potential, under currently policies the share of solar in total grid power generation will remain under 2% by 2030. Under Energy Transition Scenario, the model runs under a least cost optimization plan leading to a higher uptake of solar power. As per this scenario, the share of renewable increase beyond 2030 to achieve a share of around 50% by 2045. This can lead to cumulative carbon reductions of around 2000 Mt by 2030 and economic savings of around $ 5 billion. Based on the model results, this study also identifies the possible pathways for upcoming iterations of Pakistan IGCEP plan that builds around solar PV
Prospects of low carbon development for Pakistan’s energy and power sector in the post Covid scenario Ubaid ur Rehman Zia; Hina Aslam; Muhammad Zulfiqar; Sibghat Ullah
International Journal of Renewable Energy Development Vol 12, No 4 (2023): July 2023
Publisher : Center of Biomass & Renewable Energy, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/ijred.2023.49927

Abstract

In the backdrop of COVID19 recovery, Pakistan is still struggling to cope with the economic challenges and disruptions caused in the energy supply chain. On one hand where COVID has brought serious socio-economic costs and prolonged delays, it has also provided opportunity for developing countries such as Pakistan to “build-forward-better” their economies in a more sustainable and climate friendly manner. This study particularly highlights the impact of COVID on energy supply and demand sectors of Pakistan, its near- and long-term impacts, and what policy interventions can be adopted to put Pakistan on-track to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The economic focus in on “Green Recovery” and what key interventions will foster a rapid transition towards decarbonization in Pakistan. Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model is used to provide energy sector outlook (2020-2040) of Pakistan under different scenario i.e., Pre COVID growth, Business-as-Usual, Slow Recovery, and Green Recovery from COVID. The results obtained from the model depicts that following a green recovery scenario, Pakistan can reduce around 10 Mtoe (9%) of its total energy use, 53 TWh of electricity, 19 Mt of emissions from demand sectors, and 11 Mt of emissions from the power sector by 2030. For total levelized cost of the power sector, the green recovery scenario represents a generation cost of $13 billion by 2030 which further highlights that energy efficiency could lead to cost savings of approximately $3 billion each year by 2030. Green recovery is however still a daunting task as it would require economic stimulus of $8 billion only to recover to its pre COVID scenario and total investments of $120 billion by 2030.
Prospects of low carbon development for Pakistan’s energy and power sector in the post Covid scenario Ubaid ur Rehman Zia; Hina Aslam; Muhammad Zulfiqar; Sibghat Ullah
International Journal of Renewable Energy Development Vol 12, No 4 (2023): July 2023
Publisher : Center of Biomass & Renewable Energy, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/ijred.2023.49927

Abstract

In the backdrop of COVID19 recovery, Pakistan is still struggling to cope with the economic challenges and disruptions caused in the energy supply chain. On one hand where COVID has brought serious socio-economic costs and prolonged delays, it has also provided opportunity for developing countries such as Pakistan to “build-forward-better” their economies in a more sustainable and climate friendly manner. This study particularly highlights the impact of COVID on energy supply and demand sectors of Pakistan, its near- and long-term impacts, and what policy interventions can be adopted to put Pakistan on-track to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The economic focus in on “Green Recovery” and what key interventions will foster a rapid transition towards decarbonization in Pakistan. Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model is used to provide energy sector outlook (2020-2040) of Pakistan under different scenario i.e., Pre COVID growth, Business-as-Usual, Slow Recovery, and Green Recovery from COVID. The results obtained from the model depicts that following a green recovery scenario, Pakistan can reduce around 10 Mtoe (9%) of its total energy use, 53 TWh of electricity, 19 Mt of emissions from demand sectors, and 11 Mt of emissions from the power sector by 2030. For total levelized cost of the power sector, the green recovery scenario represents a generation cost of $13 billion by 2030 which further highlights that energy efficiency could lead to cost savings of approximately $3 billion each year by 2030. Green recovery is however still a daunting task as it would require economic stimulus of $8 billion only to recover to its pre COVID scenario and total investments of $120 billion by 2030.
Socio-Economic Prospects of Solar PV Uptake in Energy Policy Landscape of Pakistan Faraz ul Haq; Tanzeel ur Rashid; Ubaid ur Rehman Zia
International Journal of Renewable Energy Development Vol 11, No 4 (2022): November 2022
Publisher : Center of Biomass & Renewable Energy, Diponegoro University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/ijred.2022.46082

Abstract

Despite global calls for climate change and its impacts in past decade, energy sector of Pakistan has remained highly dominated by high-cost carbon-intensive resources. Although a significant number of policies have been put forward by both provincial and federal government in last three years, the ground-level implementation of these policies is non-existent, and Pakistan’s progress is still far behind the developed countries. This study therefore performs a socio-economic analysis of solar PV potential in Pakistan and how recent policies can be mobilized to upscale the utilization of solar PV both as an on-grid and off-grid generation source. This also links to solar potential for corporate sector engagements in their Net-Zero Pathways. The methodological approach uses a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model designed for Pakistan’s Power System supplies under three different scenarios i.e., Energy Transition Scenario, Conventional Generation Scenarios, and Business as Usual Scenario. Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2021) along with recent policies is used as the leading data source for driving the capacity additions. The results obtained from the model indicates that despite having a large potential, under currently policies the share of solar in total grid power generation will remain under 2% by 2030. Under Energy Transition Scenario, the model runs under a least cost optimization plan leading to a higher uptake of solar power. As per this scenario, the share of renewable increase beyond 2030 to achieve a share of around 50% by 2045. This can lead to cumulative carbon reductions of around 2000 Mt by 2030 and economic savings of around $ 5 billion. Based on the model results, this study also identifies the possible pathways for upcoming iterations of Pakistan IGCEP plan that builds around solar PV
Co-Authors Faraz ul Haq Hina Aslam Muhammad Zulfiqar Sibghat Ullah Tanzeel ur Rashid