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All Journal AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review
Alvian Ferrandy
Badan Pusat Statistik
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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The Impact of Covid-19 on Indonesia's Financial System Stability Using ARIMA Intervention Analysis Dyah Makutaning Dewi; Alvian Ferrandy; Nur Aini; Nasrudin Nasrudin
AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Vol 7, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Asosiasi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47312/aefr.v7i1.463

Abstract

The financial system has an important role to play in helping the relocation of funds. If the financial system is in unstable condition it will disrupt production, consumption, and investment activities. Then, if financial institutions and financial markets that have a role as financial mediators are facing uncertainty, as a result the allocation of funds will not go well. Therefore, the financial system is strongly related to exchange rates and stocks. On March 2, 2020, the first case of Covid-19 occurred in Indonesia. As a result, the rupiah depreciated and in addition to impacting indonesia's weakening financial market conditions. Capital markets in Indonesia suffered a significant crash marked by a decline IHSG. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on exchange rate movements and IHSG. This research uses the ARIMA intervention method. The results of the analysis showed the negative impact of Covid-19 on the stability of the financial system in Indonesia began to be felt after two weeks of confirmation of the first case. The depreciation of the rupiah is out of the ordinary since the 18th day and IHSG occurred since the 16th day after the announcement of the first case and  temporary.
The Impact of Covid-19 on Gold Price in Indonesia Using ARIMA Intervention Dyah Makutaning Dewi; Alvian Ferrandy; Muhammad Zaky Nafi'; Nasrudin
Journal of Business and Political Economy : Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Vol. 2 No. 2 (2020): Journal of Business and Political Economy
Publisher : INDEF - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (438.693 KB) | DOI: 10.46851/68

Abstract

On March 2, 2020, Indonesia experienced first case of Covid 19. As a result, investors should be careful in investing so that investors choose gold in investing. Purpose of this study is analyze impact of Covid-19 on gold price in Indonesia. Research method uses ARIMA intervention. The results showed that the impact of Covid-19 on gold price in Indonesia is gradual temporary, meaning the intervention to influence the movement of gold price gradually and temporarily. Intervention of Covid-19 cases against gold price in Indonesia began to be felt after two weeks of the first case of Covid-19 in Indonesia which demonstrated by the increase in the gold price out of ordinary since the 16th day. On the 19th day after intervention, the gold price in Indonesia decreased. Furthermore, the gold price in Indonesia is again rising and expected to increase. The forecast results of the next 31 days show gold price in Indonesia has always increased. When Covid-19 has not been able to be resolved so that the confirmed positive case of Covid-19 continues to increase, gold investment is one of the safe investments. However, investors should pay attention to gold price movements if they want to invest in gold. Keywords: ARIMA Intervention, Covid-19, Gold Price JEL Classification: E22, H54, O16
Co-Authors Dyah Makutaning Dewi Muhammad Zaky Nafi' Nasrudin Nur Aini