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All Journal Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS
Octavia Rizky Prasetyo
BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences

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TEKNIK PENANAMAN JAJAR LEGOWO UNTUK PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS PADI SAWAH DI JAWA TENGAH Octavia Rizky Prasetyo; Kadir Kadir
Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan Vol 3 No 1 (2019): Vol. 3 No. 1, November 2019
Publisher : Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah, Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kabupaten Sragen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (576.017 KB) | DOI: 10.32630/sukowati.v3i1.88

Abstract

This research is aimed to analyse the distribution of a cultivation technique of wetland paddy so-called “Jajar Legowo” in Central Java Province as well as its impact on paddy productivity. We made use of the Results of the 2017 Cost Structure of Food Crops Cultivation Survey carried out by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). A spatial analysis and an estimation of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model was used to achieve aims. Our results pointed out that the wetland paddy households implementing the technique only made up about 32.05 per cent of the total number of wetland paddy households in Central Java. They were concentrated in some municipalities, i.e., Prubalingga, Banjarnegara, Grobogan, Kudus, Demak, Temanggung and Kendal. Meanwhile, the OLS estimations showed that the technique has a significant impact in boosting productivity up to 16 per cent compared to other cultivation techniques. Therefore, it could be a key measure in increasing rice production in Central Java. Moreover, our findings also pointed out that other measures such as enhancing the capacity of farmers, the use of high-quality seed and mechanisation and improving the access on financial resources also have a pivotal role in improving the productivity of paddy in the province.
Can Paddy Growing Phase Produce an Accurate Forecast of Paddy Harvested Area in Indonesia? Analysis of the Area Sampling Frame Results Kadir Ruslan; Octavia Rizky Prasetyo
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2023 No. 1 (2023): Proceedings of 2023 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2023i1.316

Abstract

Our study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the forecasts produced based on the paddy growing phase obtained from the results of the Area Sampling Frame (ASF) Survey and, as a comparison, proposes an alternative forecast method taking into account the seasonal pattern and hierarchical structure of the national paddy harvested area estimation obtained from the ASF to improve the accuracy. In doing so, we calculated the MAPE by comparing the realization of paddy harvested area during the period January to September 2022 with their forecasts produced from the area of generative, late vegetative, and early vegetative phases. We also implemented a Hierarchical forecasting method on monthly data of the harvested area from January 2018 to August 2022 for all provinces. Specifically, we applied the bottom-up method for the reconciliation and the rolling window method to produce a three-consecutive month forecast for the period January to September 2022. We found that the accuracy prediction based on the paddy growing phase is moderately accurate. The combination of the bottom-up reconciliation method and the SARIMA model produces a much better accuracy for the national figure of paddy harvested area as shown by a lower MAPE. Our findings suggest that the Hierarchical forecasting method could be an alternative for the prediction of harvested area based on the ASF results other than the prediction obtained from the standing crops.
Does Farm Size Matter for Food Security Among Agricultural Households? Analysis of Indonesia’s Agricultural Integrated Survey Results Kadir Ruslan; Octavia Rizky Prasetyo
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2023 No. 1 (2023): Proceedings of 2023 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2023i1.318

Abstract

Most agricultural households in Indonesia are small-scale farmers making them prone to food insecurity. Until recently, no study has assessed the impact of farm size and sociodemographic characteristics on the food insecurity status of agricultural households using a nationwide agricultural household survey in Indonesia. Our study aims to address this gap by utilizing the results of the first Indonesian Agricultural Integrated Survey conducted by BPS in 2021. Applying the Rasch Model, Multinomial Logistic Regression, and Ordinary Least Squares Regression, we found that the farm size has a positive impact in lowering the likelihood of experiencing moderate or severe levels of food insecurity among agricultural households. Our study also found that agricultural households with a higher probability of being food insecure are characterized by having higher members of households, relying only on agricultural activities for their livelihood, lower education attainment of household heads, and being led by female farmers.
Development of Paddy Yield Gap Between Java and Outside Java: Does It Have a Contribution to Paddy Yield Improvement from 2018 to 2021? Kadir Ruslan; Octavia Rizky Prasetyo
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2023 No. 1 (2023): Proceedings of 2023 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2023i1.330

Abstract

Increasing the paddy yield is crucial for Indonesia to maintain its national rice sufficiency amid the consistent depletion of wetland paddy areas. In this regard, the yield disparities between regions are challenging, particularly between Java and outside Java. Our study aims to examine the development of the paddy yield gap between the two regions from 2018 to 2021 and its contribution to paddy yield improvement during the period. Using the results of the National Crop-cutting Survey, we found that while the paddy yield in Java outperformed the paddy yield outside Java, the yield difference between the two regions narrowed from around 26 per cent in 2018 to 22 per cent in 2021 due to the increase of the yield outside Java. The results of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition suggested that the narrowing gap has a significant contribution to the national paddy yield increase from 2018 to 2021. Our finding confirms that narrowing the yield gap between the two regions by increasing the yield outside Java is crucial to improving paddy yield in Indonesia. Our study also pointed out that improvement in irrigation systems, fertilizer use, and fertilizer assistance are important factors in maintaining the paddy yield and narrowing the gap.
Co-Authors Kadir Kadir Kadir Ruslan