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The Effect of External Factors on Consumption Electricity Loads Forecasting using Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno Kang Santika, Gayatri Dwi; mahmudy, wayan f
MATICS Vol 9, No 1 (2017): MATICS
Publisher : Department of Informatics Engineering

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1067.47 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/mat.v9i1.3968

Abstract

This study applied Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno to forecast electrical load by considering the external factors. To see the accuracy of forecasting using Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno, then a comparison between the forecasting results of Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using historical data with Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using external factors was done. By using external factors method, resulted the smallest RMSE of 0762 and using historical data obtained error (RMSE) of 1028. The results of the study came to the conclusion that Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno method using external factors to forecast the consumption of electrical load gives a better result than Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using only historical data.
Optimization Improved K-Means on Centroid Initialization process using Particle Swarm Optimization for Tsunami Prone Area Groupings Santika, Gayatri Dwi; Sari, Nadia Roosmalita; S, M Zaki; Mahmudy, Wayan Firdaus
MATICS Vol 10, No 1 (2018): MATICS
Publisher : Department of Informatics Engineering

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (656.109 KB) | DOI: 10.18860/mat.v10i1.3836

Abstract

Tsunami is a high wave caused by tectonic earthquakes, volcanic eruption or landslides in the ocean.  Indonesia is one of the countries that has thousands of islands. Lots of towns is a city on the banks or waterfront city. Indonesia becomes Tsunami prone areas. Tsunami can affect damage in various sectors, namely land degradation and infrastructure, environmental damage, fatalities, even the psychological impact on the victims themselves. Therefore, it takes a clustering of tsunami-prone areas. The result of clustering can give information to the public to remain alert to the danger of the tsunami. Also, clustering of the tsunami can be used by a government to prepare policies in overcoming the danger of the tsunami. Improved K-Means is an approach that proposed in this study to clustering the tsunami prone areas. In selecting the initial centroid must be done properly to produce a high accuracy. We proposed a method to determine the initial centroid appropriately, so that can increase the accuracy. The proposed method is Particle Swam Optimization (PSO). This study also uses comparison methods, such as K-Means, K-Means Improved, and K-Means Improved PSO. This study uses silhouette coefficient to test the accuracy of the system. The result showed that the proposed method has higher accuracy than the comparison method. Silhouette coefficient generated at 0.99924223 with smaller computing time