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All Journal International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics (IJDASEA) RAGAM: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Trimono Trimono
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Public Health

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Negative Binomial Time Series Regression – Random Forest Ensemble in Intermittent Data Amri Muhaimin; Prismahardi Aji Riyantoko; Hendri Prabowo; Trimono Trimono
Internasional Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Anaylitics Vol. 1 No. 2 (2021): International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics Vol 1, No 2,
Publisher : International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (331.85 KB) | DOI: 10.33005/ijdasea.v1i2.10

Abstract

Intermittent dataset is a unique data that will be challenging to forecast. Because the data is containing a lot of zeros. The kind of intermittent data can be sales data and rainfall data. Because both sometimes no data recorded in a certain period. In this research, the model is created to overcome the problem. The approach that is used in this research is the ensemble method. Mostly the intermittent data comes from the Negative Binomial because the variance is over the mean. We use two datasets, which are rainfall and sales data. So, our approach is creating the base model from the time series regression with Negative Binomial based, and then we augmented the base model with a tree-based model which is random forest. Furthermore, we compare the result with the benchmark method which is The Croston method and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). As the result, our approach can overcome the benchmark based on metric value by 1.79 and 7.18.
PENGARUH PERUBAHAN TAHUN TERHADAP PRODUKSI PERTANIAN DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN REPEATED MEASURES MANOVA Selly Rizkiyah; Indira Zein Rizqin; Milla Akbarany Baktiar Putri; Muhammad Nasrudin; Trimono Trimono
RAGAM: Journal of Statistics & Its Application Vol 4, No 1 (2025): RAGAM: Journal of Statistics & Its Application
Publisher : Universitas Lambung Mangkurat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20527/ragam.v4i1.14970

Abstract

This study aims to analyze significant differences in rice paddy production in Indonesia based on year factors using the Repeated Measures MANOVA method. The data used includes harvest areas, productivity, and total rice production from various provinces during the period 2020-2024.  The results showed that there was a significant relationship between the variables tested, so the independence assumption in the MANOVA method was not met. Therefore, Repeated Measures-MANOVA was used as an alternative approach that is more suitable for repeated data. The analysis showed that there were significant differences in rice production by year, with a p-value of <0.05 in all multivariate statistics. The results highlight the importance of efficient crop land management and increased productivity to support the sustainability of the agricultural sector. The Repeated Measures-MANOVA approach proved effective in identifying variations in production based on time factors and can be a relevant analytical tool.
Co-Authors Amri Muhaimin Hendri Prabowo Indira Zein Rizqin Milla Akbarany Baktiar Putri Muhammad Nasrudin Prismahardi Aji Riyantoko Selly Rizkiyah