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All Journal Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Ngoc Thanh Tran
Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City
Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Grid search of exponential smoothing method: a case study of Ho Chi Minh City load demand Ngoc Thanh Tran; Le Van Dai
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 19, No 3: September 2020
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v19.i3.pp1121-1130

Abstract

The exponential smoothing method is one of the widely used methods for load forecasting. The taxonomy of exponential smoothing method shows that its trend and seasonal component affect the results of exponential smoothing method. This paper proposed a framework for grid search with the optimal model of exponential smoothing method based on math formulas. The training process will specify the optimal models which satisfy requirement of minimum of akaike information criterion, accuracy scores of the root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error. The testing process will evaluate the accuracy scores between the optimal models and all other ones. The results indicated that the optimal models have accuracy scores near the minimum values. The load demand data collected in Ho Chi Minh City were used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the grid search framework.
A new grid search algorithm based on XGBoost model for load forecasting Ngoc Thanh Tran; Thanh Thi Giang Tran; Tuan Anh Nguyen; Minh Binh Lam
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 12, No 4: August 2023
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/eei.v12i4.5016

Abstract

XGBoost is a highly effective and widely used machine learning model and its hyperparameters take an important role on the performance of the model. This paper presents a new grid search (GS) algorithm for obtaining optimal hyperparameters of the XGBoost model based on the median values of their error loss. A benchmark method used to evaluate the proposed and original GS algorithms is introduced. Datasets with measured daily electricity demand load values of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and Tasmania state, Australia are analyzed for the performance of both algorithms. The error metrics, mean squared errors (MSEs), of the proposed algorithm are found to be 2,282 MW and 501 MW that are smaller than those of original algorithms, which are 2,424 MW and 537 MW in case of Ho Chi Minh City and Tasmania state, respectively. These results then verify the accuracy of the proposed algorithm.
Co-Authors Le Van Dai Minh Binh Lam Thanh Thi Giang Tran Tuan Anh Nguyen