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Li Yanzi
North China Electric Power University

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Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Gray Theory Cui Herui; Bo Tao; Li Yanzi
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 11, No 11: November 2013
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

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Abstract

Power load forecasting provides the basis for the preparation of power planning, especially the accurate short-term power load forecasting. It can formulate power rationing program of area load reliably and timely, to maintain the normal production and life. This article describes the gray prediction method, and improves GM (1,1) model via processing the original data sequence smoothly, using the correction model of parameteramending parameter values, adding the residual model, and also applying the idea of the metabolism. It conducts an empirical analysis of the 10KV large cable of Guigang Power Supply Bureau in Nan Ping, and verifies the limitations of ordinary gray theory. The improved gray model has a higher prediction accuracy than the conventional GM (1,1) model. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v11i11.3547  
Co-Authors Bo Tao Cui Herui