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This Author published in this journals
All Journal East Java Economic Journal
Rizky Zulkarnain
Badan Pusat Statistik
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Flash Estimates of Household Final Consumption Expenditure in East Java Rizky Zulkarnain
East Java Economic Journal Vol. 6 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Jawa Timur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1288.512 KB) | DOI: 10.53572/ejavec.v6i1.84

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to construct a flash estimates model for household final consumption expenditure in East Java. There were 153 indicators that were used, covering Big Data and non Big Data indicators. Indicators from Big Data were the Google Trends indicators. The Google Trends categories were selected based on the highest correlation coefficient. While the non Big Data indicators were the total deposit, consumption credit, consumer lending rate, term deposit rate (1, 3, and 6 months), withdrawal (outflow), and Consumer Price Index (CPI). This study examines several models: ARIMA, ADL, Elastic Net, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Ensemble. The models were examined using various scenarios of out-of-sample and estimation periods (t+10 days, t+20 days and t+30 days). The prediction performance of models were evaluated using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The evaluation results showed that the Elastic Net and the Ensemble were the best model for any scenarios. Both models had good performance since t+10 days.
Pandemic Vulnerability Mapping in East Java and Its Connection to Local Economic Resistance Rizky Zulkarnain; Karuniawati Dewi Ramadani
East Java Economic Journal Vol. 6 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Kantor Perwakilan Bank Indonesia Provinsi Jawa Timur

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53572/ejavec.v6i2.85

Abstract

The objectives of this study are to measuring and to mapping pandemic vulnerability in East Java as well as to examine the association between pandemic vulnerability and local economic resistance. To achieve the objectives, this study employs several techniques: descriptive analysis, principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and analysis of variance. The data were acquired from various sources, that cover health, social, economic, and environmental conditions. The results showed that there were seven most vulnerable districts in East Java. They were Kota Surabaya, Kabupaten Sidoarjo, Kabupaten Gresik, Kota Kediri, Kota Malang, Kota Mojokerto and Kota Madiun. The core pandemic indicators were population mobility, the number of COVID-19 cases and its mortality, population density, air pollution, the prevalence of diabetes, and the share of secondary and tertiary sectors. Furthermore, this study found that there were negative association between pandemic vulnerability and local economic resistance in East Java.
Co-Authors Karuniawati Dewi Ramadani