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IMPLEMENTATION OF PROPHET IN AMERICAN ELECTRICITY FORECASTING WITH AND WITHOUT PARAMETER TUNING Sulandari, Winita; Yudhanto, Yudho; Hapsari, Riskhia; Wijayanti, Monica Dini; Pardede, Hilman Ferdinandus
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 17, No 1 (2024): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.17.1.93-104

Abstract

Prophet is one of the machine learning approximation methods that accommodate trends, seasonality, and holiday impacts in time series data. Generally, the performance of machine learning models can be improved by implementing hyperparameter tuning. This study investigates whether hyperparameter tuning can improve the model's performance. To show its effectiveness, the Prophet model constructed by parameter tuning is compared to the one with fixed parameter values (namely the default model) for both the original series and the Box-Cox transformed series in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Based on the experimental results of the twenty-four daily electricity load time series in American Electric Power (AEP). This shows that parameter tuning successfully reduces the MAPE of the default model in the range of about 3-8% for training data. However, there is no guarantee for testing data. Although, in some cases, parameter tuning can reduce the MAPE value of the default model by up to 38%, in other cases, it actually increases the MAPE of the default model by almost 15%. The experiments on testing data also show that models built from transformed data do not necessarily produce more accurate forecast values than those built from the original data.
Forecasting the Composite Stock Price Index Using Fuzzy Time Series Type 2: Peramalan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dengan menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Tipe 2 Pramesti, Arsita Anggraeni; Sulandari, Winita; Subanti, Sri; Yudhanto, Yudho
RADIANT: Journal of Applied, Social, and Education Studies Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): RADIANT: Journal of Applied, Social, and Education Studies
Publisher : Politeknik Harapan Bangsa Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52187/rdt.v4i2.167

Abstract

The movement and fluctuation of the IHSG are one of the references for investors in making investment decisions for buying, selling, or holding share ownership. Forecasting the value of the IHSG can assist investors in making this decision. This study used the fuzzy time series type 2 method to predict the IHSG. This study uses monthly IHSG data for 2017-2021 with 3 variables, namely close prices, high prices, and low prices. In fuzzy time series forecasting, the length of the interval affects the prediction results. This study uses a distribution and average-based method in determining the length of the interval to obtain optimal forecasting results. Based on the calculation of MAPE, the forecasting using average-based and distribution-based interval lengths had errors of 2.56% and 2.46%. The MAPE value shows that the forecasting results from the two methods of taking the length of the interval are very good. The IHSG forecasting results in January 2022 use a distribution-based interval length is 6450 while the IHSG forecasting results in January 2022 use an average-based interval length is 6510. The results of this study indicate that the interval length affects the forecasting results in fuzzy time series. Keywords: IHSG, fuzzy time series type 2, length of the interval, MAPE
Rancang Bangun Sistem Informasi Donor Darah (SIMORA) Di PMI Kota Surakarta Yudhanto, Yudho
IJAI (Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics) Vol 5, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijai.v5i2.40566

Abstract

Abstrak Masyarakat yang hendak melakukan donor darah seringkali mengalami kerepotan dalam pengisian form pendonor. Hal ini dikarenakan Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) atau Mobile Unit PMI belum mempunyai sistem registrasi pendonor yang dilakukan secara tersisteminasai dan terhubung pangkalan data pedonor yang dapat diakses dengan cepat. Perlunya menemukan cara utnuk memecahkan permasalahan yang ada dengan menyediakan sebuah program sistem informasi donor darah yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan pendataan dan registrasi. Sistem Informasi Donor Darah berbasis Web merupakan sebuah cara untuk menampilkan halaman registrasi untuk pendonor sehingga diharapkan masyarakat dapat melakukan registrasi donor darah lebih cepat dan dikembangkan dengan metode waterfall. Dengan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman PHP, database MySQL dan framework CodeIgniter dalam pembangunan sistem informasi donor darah berbasis web. Hasil penelitian bahwa aplikasi dapat digunakan untuk mendata pendonor darah di kota Surakarta yang di kelola oleh Palang Merah Indonesia kota Surakarta. =================================AbstractPeople who want to donate blood often experience difficulties in filling out donor forms. This is because the Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) or the PMI Mobile Unit does not yet have a donor registration system that is carried out systematically and connected to a donor database that can be accessed quickly. a solution to solve existing problems by providing a blood donor information system program that can be used for data collection and registration is needed. The Web-based Blood Donor Information System is a way to display the registration page for donors so that it is hoped that the public can register blood donors more quickly and is developed using the waterfall method. By using the PHP programming language, MySQL database and CodeIgniter framework in the development of a web-based blood donor information system. The results showed that the application can be used to register blood donors in the city of Surakarta which is managed by the Indonesian Red Cross in the city of Surakarta.
Rancang Bangun Aplikasi EXAM dengan Metode Analisis Butir Soal Yudhanto, Yudho
IJAI (Indonesian Journal of Applied Informatics) Vol 5, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijai.v5i2.43505

Abstract

AbstrakTujuan dari sistem yang akan dibuat ini adalah untuk memudahkan guru mengetahui tingkat kesulitan soal yang dikerjakan peserta ujian, serta memudahkan peserta ujian melihat informasi hasil ujian lulus atau tidak berdasarkan nilai yang diperoleh sebagai acuan untuk mengerjakan soal ujian ulang. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis butir soal kuantatif. Penelaahan soal secara kuantitatif adalah penelaahan butir soal didasarkan pada bukti empirik. Tingkat kesukaran dinyatakan dalam indeks kesukaran (dificulty index), adalah angka yang menunjukkan proporsi siswa yang menjawab benar soal tersebut. Semakin besar indeks tingkat kesukaran yang diperoleh dan hasil hitungan, berarti semakin mudah soal itu. Semakin tinggi koefisien daya pembeda suatu butir soal, semakin mampu butir soal tersebut membedakan antara peerta didik yang menguasai kompetensi dengan peserta didik yang kurang menguasai kompetensi. Penelitian ini akan diawali dengan membuat proses bisnis dari pembuatan soal ujian hingga hasil akhir nilai ujian. Sebelum membuat perancangan aplikasi diperlukan tabel Kebutuhan Fungsional Sistem. Selanjutnya, dalam perancangan aplikasi yang pertama yaitu Usecase Diagram dan Skenario Usecase. Setelah itu membuat Class Diagram dan Sequence Diagram. Setelah perancangan selesai, lalu membuat rancangan database dengan ERD (Entity Relationship Diagram), Relasi Antar Tabel, dan Perancangan Tabel. Kemudian membuat desain User Interface. Setelah itu, sistem diuji dengan metode Blackbox. Hasil penelitian pada tugas akhir Rancang Bangun Aplikasi Exam Dengan Metode Analisis Butir Soal adalah sistem yang berasal dari perancangan aplikasi dan perancangan database yang telah diimplementasikan untuk menganalisis butir soal ujian berdasarkan bobot yang telah ditentukan pada setiap opsi jawaban.==========================AbtractThe purpose of the system that will be created is to make it easier for teachers to find out the level of difficulty of the questions done by the examinees, and to make it easier for the examinees to see information on the results of the graduated exam or not based on the scores obtained as a reference for working on retest questions. The method used in this research is quantitative item analysis. Quantitative review of questions is a review of items based on empirical evidence. Difficulty level is expressed in the difficulty index, is a number that shows the proportion of students who answered the problem correctly. The greater the difficulty level index obtained and the results of the calculation, the easier the problem is. The higher the coefficient of distinguishing power of an item, the more able the item is to distinguish between students who master competencies and students who lack competency. This research will begin by making a business process from making exam questions to the final results of the exam scores. Before making an application design, a System Functional Requirement table is needed. Next, in designing the first application, the Usecase Diagram and the Usecase Scenario. After that make a Class Diagram and Sequence Diagram. After the design is complete, then create a database design with ERD (Entity Relationship Diagram), Relationships Between Tables, and Table Design. Then create a User Interface Design. After that, the system is tested by the Blackbox Method. The results of the research in the final project Design and Application Development Exam with Item Analysis Method Problem is a system derived from the application design and database design that has been implemented to analyze the test items based on the weight that has been determined on each answer option.