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All Journal Formosa Journal of Science and Technology (FJST) Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bestari (JPMB) Formosa Journal of Applied Sciences (FJAS)
F. Anthon Pangruruk
Universitas Matana
Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Predicting the Number of People Exposed to Covid 19 with the Newton Gregory Maju Polynomial Interpolation Method F. Anthon Pangruruk; Simon P. Barus
Formosa Journal of Science and Technology Vol. 1 No. 8 (2022): December 2022
Publisher : PT FORMOSA CENDEKIA GLOBAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55927/fjst.v1i8.2185

Abstract

Since March 2020 until now the Corona Virus (Covid-19) is still running rampant and even new variants have appeared. The increase in people exposed to this virus can cripple the community's economy. The government must be able to anticipate the increasingly high spread of Covid-19. Therefore, a prediction model is needed for the number of people exposed to Covid-19 so that the government can anticipate it as a preventive measure. Research that has been carried out since early 2021 using the Monte Karlo, Arima, K-Nearest Neighbors methods, Time Series Analysis, Winter and Artificial Neural Networks. Furthermore, the researchers predicted the number of people exposed to Covid-19 using the Newton Gregory Maju interpolation method. The prediction results for the DKI Jakarta area in March 2022 are based on historical data for January - February 2022 with the smallest error of 2.17%, the highest error of 46.28% and the average error of 17.27%.
Introduction to Actuarial Science and the Actuary Profession at SMA PRAMITA Tangerang F. Anthon Pangruruk
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bestari Vol. 1 No. 9 (2022): Desember 2022
Publisher : PT FORMOSA CENDEKIA GLOBAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55927/jpmb.v1i9.2163

Abstract

Actuarial science is a science that applies mathematical and statistical science methods to assess risk. Currently actuaries are needed with large income. But ironically, many high school students do not know the knowledge and profession of actuaries. Community service activities are carried out as an actualization of knowledge from the Statistics Study Program at Matana University through an introductory seminar on actuarial science and the actuary profession given to Class X students of PRAMITA SMA Tangerang. Community service can be carried out very well. Positive responses from all seminar participants included the level of satisfaction (satisfied 11.6%, very satisfied 46.5% and very satisfied 41.9%), the usefulness of the event (100% useful), and the quality of the program (9.3 % good, 39.5% very good, 51.2% very good). This PKM activity is an implementation of the Mathematical Finance and Insurance Mathematics courses.
Comparison of Prediction of the Number of People Exposed to Covid 19 Using the Lagrange Interpolation Method with the Newton Gregory Maju Polynomial Interpolation Method F. Anthon Pangruruk; Simon P. Barus
Formosa Journal of Applied Sciences Vol. 2 No. 6 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : PT FORMOSA CENDEKIA GLOBAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55927/fjas.v2i6.4853

Abstract

In March 2020 the World Health Organization stated that the Corona Virus pandemic (Covid-19) was due to its massive spread and hit all countries in the world. Academics and practitioners are called upon to carry out research activities in order to obtain a mathematical model that can be used to predict the number of people exposed to Covid-19 or other diseases. The researchers previously tried research to predict the number of people exposed to Covid-19 from early 2021 using the Monte Karlo method, the Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic– Double Exponential Smoothing method, the Arima method, the BackPropagation and Fuzzy Tsukamoto methods, the K-Nearest method. Neighbors, Time Series Analysis method, Winter Method and Long Short Time Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network method.
Co-Authors Barus, Simon Prananta