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All Journal Emerging Science Journal
Rapin Sunthornwat
Industrial Technology and Innovation Management Program, Pathumwan Institute of Technology, Bangkok, 10330,
Environmental Science

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Probabilistic Analysis Depending on the Distance from A COVID-19 Outbreak Yupaporn Areepong; Rapin Sunthornwat
Emerging Science Journal Vol 7 (2023): Special Issue "COVID-19: Emerging Research"
Publisher : Ital Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-SPER-012

Abstract

COVID-19 has been affecting human beings since the end of 2019. Studying the characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak is significant because it will add to the knowledge that is necessary for protecting the general public and controlling future viral outbreaks. The aims of the present research are to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks in Thailand depending on the distance from the outbreak center by using a differential equation, to construct a probability density function from the solution of the differential equation, and to prove the theorem for the probability density function depending on the distance from the outbreak. The least-squares-error method is adopted to estimate the parameters of the function describing the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, a cumulative distribution function, a quantile function, a sojourn function, a hazard function, the median, the expected value, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are derived, and their practicability is shown. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average control chart to monitor a COVID-19 outbreak based on distance is proposed and compared with monitoring the COVID-19 outbreak based on time. The results show that using the former more quickly detected the out-of-control first passage time of the COVID-19 outbreak than the latter. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-SPER-012 Full Text: PDF
Co-Authors Yupaporn Areepong