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All Journal JOURNAL AGRIBUSINESS
Faoeza Hafiz Saragih
Departement of Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture. Samudera University, Langsa Aceh
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF SHALLOTS ( Allium cepa L. ) IN NORTH SUMATRA PROVINCE Julia Dahara; Fiddin Alham; Faoeza Hafiz Saragih
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol 16, No 2 (2022): Agribusiness Journal
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v16i2.29743

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the results of the trend of shallot production in North Sumatra in 2021-2030 whether it will increase or not. The data used in this research is secondary data. The object of research in this study is statistical data on the annual shallot production in North Sumatra Province at the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for 2011-2020. The appropriate research method in this study uses the trend parabola. This is because the trend parabola has the smallest Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 4,215,734.62 and the smallest percentage of Mean Absolute Precentage Error (MAPE) is 2.1% compared to other methods. The results showed that forecasting shallot production in North Sumatra Province has increased. There is a deficit between shallot consumption and production, for this reason it is necessary to breed shallot seeds, and increase the area of shallot plantations in North Sumatra Province to increase shallot production and productivity so as to be able to meet the demand for shallot consumption in North Sumatra Province. 
FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF SHALLOTS ( Allium cepa L. ) IN NORTH SUMATRA PROVINCE Julia Dahara; Fiddin Alham; Faoeza Hafiz Saragih
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol 16, No 2 (2022): Agribusiness Journal
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v16i2.29743

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the results of the trend of shallot production in North Sumatra in 2021-2030 whether it will increase or not. The data used in this research is secondary data. The object of research in this study is statistical data on the annual shallot production in North Sumatra Province at the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for 2011-2020. The appropriate research method in this study uses the trend parabola. This is because the trend parabola has the smallest Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 4,215,734.62 and the smallest percentage of Mean Absolute Precentage Error (MAPE) is 2.1% compared to other methods. The results showed that forecasting shallot production in North Sumatra Province has increased. There is a deficit between shallot consumption and production, for this reason it is necessary to breed shallot seeds, and increase the area of shallot plantations in North Sumatra Province to increase shallot production and productivity so as to be able to meet the demand for shallot consumption in North Sumatra Province. 
Co-Authors Fiddin Alham Julia Dahara