Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Jurnal Gaussian
Santa Agata Mendila
Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro
Other

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG KERETA API DI PULAU JAWA MENGGUNAKAN METODE HOLT WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN Santa Agata Mendila; Iut Tri Utami; Puspita Kartikasari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.1.104-115

Abstract

One of the public transportation choices by the public is the train. The number of train passengers on the island of Java often increases and decreases in certain months. PT.KAI can monitor the number of train passengers by forecasting. Forecasting aims to predict the number of train passengers so that PT.KAI is ready to provide the best service. This study uses monthly data on the number of train passengers on Java Island from January 2015 to February 2020. This study uses multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing and fuzzy time series markov chain. The multiplicative Holt Winters exponential smoothing method is used on data that contains trend and seasonal elements that experience data fluctuations simultaneously. The fuzzy time series markov chain method is a combination of the fuzzy time series with the markov chain which aims to obtain the greatest probability using the transition probability matrix. Based on the analysis results, it can be concluded that the multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing method is better at predicting the number of train passengers on Java Island because the value of sMAPE multiplicative holt winters exponential smoothing is smaller, it is 3,0643% and the sMAPE fuzzy time series markov chain value is 5,2955%.
Co-Authors Iut Tri Utami Puspita Kartikasari