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All Journal Edumatsains Buguh: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Siger Matematika
Agus Sutrisno
Universitas Lampung
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Chemistry Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Physics Social Sciences

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Pemodelan Dinamis Distributed Lag Dengan Menggunakan Metode Koyck Dan Metode Almon Dora Panny Nurcahaya Sitorus; Widiarti Widiarti; Agus Sutrisno; Mustofa Usman
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 4, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Siger Matematika
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsm.v4i1.9210

Abstract

The distributed lag Model is a dynamic model due to the effect of a one-unit change in the value of the distributed independent variable (X) over a period of time. Distributed lag Model there are 2 types, namely: infinite lag model and finite lag model. Infinite lag modeling using koyck method and finite lag modeling using Almon method. This distributed lag Model is used to visualize the impact caused by the independent variable on the dependent variable. This study aims to apply a dynamic model of distributed lag by using the koyck transformation method and Almon transformation method to assess the effect of the rupiah exchange rate on the value of garment exports PT. Shinwon went abroad and determined the best model in Dynamic Modeling of distributed lag using the koyck transformation method and the Almon transformation method. The results showed that dynamic modeling of distributed lag with Almon transformation method is better than koyck transformation.
PELATIHAN STATISTIKA DESKRIPTIF UNTUK DATA ADMINISTRATIF DESA DI KECAMATAN TANJUNG RAJA KABUPATEN LAMPUNG UTARA subian saidi; Netti Herawat; Misgiyati; Khoirin Nisa; Agus Sutrisno
BUGUH: JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Maret 2026
Publisher : Badan Pelaksana Kuliah Kerja Nyata Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/buguh.v6n1.3385

Abstract

Data administratif merupakan kumpulan data yang memiliki sifat nyata tentang sesuatu yang dianggap penting dan disimpan secara sistematis dalam sebuah sistem untuk mendapatkan suatu informasi tentang suatu hal yang berhubungan dalam ruang lingkup tertentu. Catatan administrasi Desa yang dikumpulkan mempunyai tujuan pengambilan keputusan tertentu, sehingga adanya satuan identitas yang memiliki kesesuaian dengan catatan tertentu sangat penting. Perlu dilakukan analisis terhadap data yang sudah diperoleh. Tujuannya adalah agar masyarakat dapat melihat gambaran jelas terkait data yang diperoleh dan juga memudahkan perangkat Desa untuk mengambil keputusan terkait kebijakan yang akan diambil. Oleh karena itu akan dilakukan pelatihan dan sosialisasi terkait pelatihan analisis data deskriptif bagi perangkat desa di kecamatan Tanjung Raja kabupaten Lampung Utara. Sehingga diharapkan kedepannya gambaran terkait data dapat dipublikasikan dalam bentuk yang mudah untuk dipahami yaitu dengan statistika deskrptif.
Comparative Analysis of Exponential and Logistic Models on Population Growth (Case Study: Ogan Komering Ulu Regency) Putri Suryani; Agus Sutrisno; La Zakaria
EduMatSains : Jurnal Pendidikan, Matematika dan Sains Vol 11 No 1 (2026): July
Publisher : Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan, Universitas Kristen Indonesia

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Abstract

Population growth is an important indicator in regional development planning as it relates to resource needs, public services, and the formulation of social and economic policies. This study aims to analyze and compare the performance of the exponential model and the logistic model in projecting the population growth of Ogan Komering Ulu (OKU) Regency for the 2014–2025 period, as well as determining the best model based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. This research uses a quantitative approach with a comparative descriptive method, utilizing secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). Model parameter estimation was carried out using the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) method through the Solver feature in Microsoft Excel with the objective function of minimizing the MAPE value. The results of the analysis show that both models have a very high level of accuracy. The exponential model produces a MAPE value of 0.4% with = 0.01, while the logistic model produces a MAPE value of 0.3% with = 0.038 and = 500,000 people. Based on these values, the logistic model has a smaller error rate and is thus considered superior in representing the actual data. Accordingly, the logistic model is established as the best model in this study with the equation , which can be used as a basis for population growth projections in Ogan Komering Ulu Regency, particularly for long-term analysis.
Co-Authors Dora Panny Nurcahaya Sitorus Khoirin Nisa La Zakaria Misgiyati Mustofa Usman Netti Herawat Putri Suryani subian saidi Widiarti Widiarti