Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer
Achmad Fahlevi
Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
Perbandingan Holt's dan Winter's Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen Kelompok Transportasi, Komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan Achmad Fahlevi; Fitra Abdurrachman Bachtiar; Budi Darma Setiawan
Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 2 No 12 (2018): Desember 2018
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer (FILKOM), Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1021.972 KB)

Abstract

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most commonly used indicators in measuring the inflation rate. CPI's group of Transportation, Communication and Financial Services have the second largest proportion on living cost with 19.15%. As the group who categorize as administered price (the price are ruled by the government), forcasting this group would help some parties involved in taking neccessery decision and avoiding significant inflation rate. In this research, forecasting were performed using two Exponential Smoothing method which is, Holt's Exponential Smoothing and Winters Exponential Smoothing. This method was evaluated by calculating average error rate using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. There will be 120 data from January 2017 until December 2017 that used which taken from Bank Indonesia official websites. The results of the test was the best parameter value for Holt's Exponential Smoothing which is 𝛼 = 0.7 dan β = 0.1 and for Winters Exponential Smoothing 𝛼 = 0.1, β = 0.4 dan γ = 0.8. And from this parameter's value, MAPE's value obtained for Holt's Exponential Smoothing which 0.474% and for Winters Exponential Smoothing is 1.503%. Both of them got MAPE value under 10% that can be categorize as very good on forcasting CPI group of Transportation, Communication and Financial Services. And can be conclude either that Holt's Exponential Smoothing have better accuration rather than Winters Exponential Smoothing in Cosumer Price Index's group of Transportation, Communication and Financial Services.
Co-Authors Budi Darma Setiawan Fitra Abdurrachman Bachtiar