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All Journal Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi
Tias Amalia Safitri
Program Studi Statistika dan Sains Data, IPB University, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Mathematics Other

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APLIKASI MODEL ARIMA GARCH DALAM PERAMALAN DATA NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR TAHUN 2017-2022 Nickyta Shavira Maharani; Yenni Angraini; Mahesa Ahmad Rahmawan; Oktaviani Aisyah Putri; Steven Kurniawan; Tias Amalia Safitri; Akbar Rizki; Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih; Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh; Andika Putri Ratnasari
Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 24 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/jmst.v24i1.4875.2023

Abstract

The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) exchange rate is used to gauge Indonesia's economic stability. Maintaining the IDR exchange rate's stability is critical since it has a direct impact on Indonesia's national monetary situation, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic. Forecasting the rupiah exchange rate is important to do and is one way to assess government policy. The data series to be used here are IDR exchange rate from the Yahoo Finance. It consists of 271 data taken from August 2017 to October 2022. This study aims to use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) modeling method using the R-studio software and predict the IDR exchange rate. The ARIMA method describes the data based on a certain time series. ARCH-Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH-LM) was applied on the residuals of the best ARIMA model to test whetoer the data is heteroscedasticity. The testing result shows that the residual of the IDR exchange rate is heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the GARCH model can be used to handle it. The results of this study are obtained for the ARIMA(2,1,3) GARCH(3,6) model as the best and describe the actual data pattern with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) forecasting value is 1,99%.
Co-Authors Akbar Rizki Andika Putri Ratnasari Mahesa Ahmad Rahmawan Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh Nickyta Shavira Maharani Oktaviani Aisyah Putri Steven Kurniawan Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yenni Angraini