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All Journal VALUE: Journal of Business Studies
Alvina Octaviani Putri
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Jember, Indonesia
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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ESTIMASI PROFIT LOSS HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KAKAO UNTUK KEPENTINGAN PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN HEDGING Alvina Octaviani Putri; Hadi Paramu; Tatok Endhiarto; Ariwan Joko Nusbantoro; Arnis Budi Susanto
VALUE: Journal of Business Studies Vol 2 No 1 (2023): VALUE: Journal of Business Studies
Publisher : Study Program of Management Faculty of Economics and Business University of Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/value.v2i1.39171

Abstract

This study aims to examine whether hedging strategies need to be implemented or not by cocoa farmers. This study uses an estimated hedging real income analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation method to predict the selling price of cocoa on the futures exchange or the futures price and the selling price of cocoa on the physical market or spot price. The historical data examined in this study are futures price data expired in 2021 and spot price data for the period December 2015 to December 2020. The results show that 85% (425 out of 500 simulations) of the estimated real hedging income are in a profit position and 15 % (75 out of 500 simulations) the estimated real hedging income is in a loss position. Based on these results it can be concluded that transacting with futures contracts is considered to provide higher prices and income than transacting in the physical market so that cocoa farmers need to implement a hedging strategy in order to protect themselves and optimize income.
Co-Authors Ariwan Joko Nusbantoro Hadi Paramu Susanto, Arnis Budi Tatok Endhiarto