Erial Bahar
Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia

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Establishing an APACHE II Cut-off Score for Predicting Mortality in Post-Thoracotomy Patients: A Single-Center Cohort Analysis Awan Rochaniawan; Ahmat Umar; Erial Bahar
Sriwijaya Journal of Surgery Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Sriwijaya Journal of Surgery
Publisher : Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/sjs.v8i2.131

Abstract

Introduction: Thoracotomy represents a significant physiological challenge with considerable mortality risk. Early, objective risk stratification in the General Intensive Care Unit (GICU) is essential for guiding clinical management. This study sought to evaluate the utility of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score as a prognostic tool in a heterogeneous post-thoracotomy population at a tertiary referral center in Southeast Asia. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 33 consecutive patients admitted to the GICU following thoracotomy between January and December 2024. The APACHE II score was calculated using the most deranged physiological values within the first 24 hours of admission. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Statistical analyses included non-parametric tests for group comparisons, Spearman's rank correlation, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A novel aspect of this study was the post-hoc stratification of the cohort by the primary surgical indication (malignancy versus non-malignancy) to explore sources of prognostic variability. Results: The overall mortality rate was 27.3% (9 of 33 patients). Non-survivors had a significantly higher median APACHE II score than survivors (23 vs. 8; p < 0.001). A strong, positive correlation was observed between the APACHE II score and mortality (Spearman's ρ = 0.706; p < 0.001). ROC analysis demonstrated excellent discriminatory performance for the overall cohort, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.956 (95% CI: 0.891–1.000). A score of ≥12.5 was identified as the optimal cut-off, yielding a sensitivity of 88.9% and specificity of 87.5%. Analysis of the APACHE II components revealed that mortality was primarily driven by derangements in neurological (GCS), renal (Creatinine), and acid-base (pH) parameters. Conclusion: In this preliminary, single-center analysis, the initial 24-hour APACHE II score demonstrated potential as a powerful prognostic marker for in-hospital mortality following thoracotomy. A candidate cut-off score of ≥12.5 successfully identified a high-risk subgroup. However, given the study's significant limitations, including a small and heterogeneous sample, these findings should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating. They underscore the need for larger, prospective studies to validate this cut-off and to develop more refined prognostic models for specific subgroups of post-thoracotomy patients.
External Validation of the RASH Score in Surgically Managed Acute Subdural Hematoma: A Critical Appraisal of Prognostic Accuracy and Surgical Factors in a Southeast Asian Cohort Irwansyah; Trijoso Permono; Dwiandi Susilo; Erial Bahar
Sriwijaya Journal of Surgery Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Sriwijaya Journal of Surgery
Publisher : Surgery Department, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/sjs.v8i2.134

Abstract

Introduction: Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) is a lethal form of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with high mortality. The Richmond Acute Subdural Hematoma (RASH) score is a simple prognostic tool, but its validity in diverse populations is untested. This study aimed to perform the first external validation of the RASH score in an Indonesian cohort and critically appraise its performance alongside key surgical factors. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-center, diagnostic accuracy study of 67 adult patients who underwent surgery for traumatic ASDH between January 2022 and December 2024 at a tertiary neurosurgical center in Palembang, Indonesia. The RASH score was calculated from admission data. We additionally analyzed the type of surgery (craniotomy vs. decompressive craniectomy) and time from injury to operation. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the RASH score's predictive performance. Results: The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 20.9% (n=14). The RASH score demonstrated excellent discrimination for mortality, with an Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.824 (95% CI: 0.715–0.933; p<0.001). A score of 5 or greater was identified as the optimal cut-off, yielding a sensitivity of 78.6% and specificity of 77.4%. This threshold provided a high Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 93.2% but a modest Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 47.8%. In bivariate analysis, decompressive craniectomy and longer time to surgery were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusion: The RASH score is a simple and robust tool for risk stratification in this selected surgical population. Its high NPV is valuable for identifying patients with a higher likelihood of survival. However, its utility must be interpreted cautiously due to the significant selection bias inherent in studying only operable patients. The score should serve as an adjunct to, not a replacement for, comprehensive clinical judgment.