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All Journal Jurnal Rekayasa dan Manajemen Sistem Industri Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining Bulletin of Civil Engineering Journal of Information System Exploration and Research
Elmo Juanara, Elmo
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Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics

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Journal : Bulletin of Civil Engineering

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Disaster Risk Management in High Impact Low Probability Events: The Case of Forecasting and Rare Event Challenges in Volcanic Tsunamis Juanara, Elmo
Bulletin of Civil Engineering Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Februari
Publisher : Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events such as volcanic-collapse tsunamis are difficult to forecast due to their rarity and catastrophic impacts. The December 22, 2018 Anak Krakatau flank collapse illustrated how medium-scale landslides can generate destructive tsunamis without seismic precursors. This study evaluates maximum tsunami amplitude forecasts using 320 pre-computed collapse scenarios. Results show that most cases produced moderate waves (mean 1.17 m), while only 1.9% exceeded 3 m and were classified as extreme. Neural Network models achieved high accuracy for moderate cases but failed to capture outliers representing rare extremes. These findings confirm the structural limitations of scenario-based databases in representing the statistical tails of HILP events. As a preliminary study, this work emphasizes the need for novel algorithms, such as importance sampling, subset simulation, and physics-informed generative models, to improve rare event representation and strengthen volcanic tsunami early warning systems.
Co-Authors Anisa, Devi Nurul Faadhilah, Avelia Fairuz Hakim, Ade Anggian Lalu Tri Wijaya Nata Kusuma Lam, Chi Yung Maeda, Yasunobu Mahrus, Zohri Nikmah, Tiara Lailatul Purnomo Budi Santoso Ramadhan, Muhammad Ridho Rispandi Roniyansyah, Roniyansyah Syafei, Risma Moulidya