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All Journal JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Samsul Bahri Loklomin
Universitas Pattimura
Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences

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MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) UNTUK MERAMALKAN INFLASI INDONESIA Yonlib Weldri Arnold Nanlohy; Samsul Bahri Loklomin
VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Vol 5 No 2 (2023): VARIANCE: Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Publisher : Statistics Study Programme, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/variancevol5iss2page201-208

Abstract

Inflasi merupakan kondisi perekonomian suatu negara dimana terjadi peningkatan harga barang dan jasa secara terus menerus dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Akibat dari inflasi pengeluaran masyarakat dalam memenuhi kebutuhan pokok semakin meningkat. Permasalahan inflasi harus dapat dikendalikan untuk menjaga stabilitas perekonomian negara. Oleh karena itu perlu adanya perkiraan atau peramalan mengenai tingkat Inflasi Indonesia. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan untuk peramalan inflasi Indonesia yaitu metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Metode ARIMA merupakan suatu metode peramalan berdasarkan pola data secara historis. Hasil analisis diperoleh model ARIMA (2,1,2) untuk peramalan inflasi di Indonesia dengan nilai RMSE hasil peramalan data out-sample untuk jangka waktu 7 periode ke depan adalah 1,826864 sehingga model ARIMA (2,1,2) dapat digunakan sebagai model peramalan inflasi di Indonesia..
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT DALAM PERAMALAN IHK KELOMPOK KESEHATAN DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR Ningsih Amalia; Samsul Bahri Loklomin; Rosalina Salhuteru; Maryo Poceratu
JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : Smart Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54314/jssr.v9i3.6295

Abstract

Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the main indicators in measuring the inflation rate which reflects changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by the public in general. In this study the data used is secondary data on the Health Group CPI in East Java Province. The method used is Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown and DES Holt. The results of the application of the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown and Holt methods in forecasting the Health Group CPI in East Java Province obtained the best method is the DES Brown method with a MAPE value of 0.27%. The results of forecasting the Health Group CPI using the best DES Brown model for the forecast value have a consistent similarity with the actual value line when there is a drastic decline in the health group CPI in early to mid-2024, the forecast line continues to follow the actual line stably.   Keywords: Sustainable Economy, Technological Innovation, Green Economy, Circular Economy, Indonesia, Triple Bottom Line Abstrak: Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) merupakan salah satu indikator utama dalam mengukur tingkat inflasi yang mencerminkan perubahan harga barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi oleh masyarakat secara umum. Dalam penelitian ini data yang di gunakan merupakan data sekunder tentang IHK Kelompok Kesehatan di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Metode yang digunakan adalah Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown dan DES Holt. Hasil Penerapan metode DES Brown dan Holt dalam melakukan peramalan IHK kelompok Kesehatan di Provinsi Jawa Timur diperoleh metode terbaik adalah metode DES Brown dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,27%. Hasil peramalan IHK Kelompok Kesehatan menggunakan model terbaik DES Brown untuk nilai peramalan memiliki kemiripan yang konsisten dengan garis nilai aktual ketika terjadi penurunan drastis IHK kelompok kesehatan pada awal hingga pertengahan tahun 2024, garis peramalan tetap mengikuti garis aktualnya dengan stabil.   Kata Kunci: Indeks Harga Konsumen, Double Exponential Smoothing, Metode Brown, Metode Holt, Jawa Timur  
Analisis Potensi Budaya di Provinsi Maluku dengan Pendekatan Statistika Spasial Yudistira; Samsul Bahri Loklomin
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023): Volume 06 Nomor 01 (April 2023)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

Culture advancement as part of a sustainable national development, needs to be supported bydata and information about factual conditions of cultural potential at national, provincial and districtlevel. However, until now there have not been many quantitative studies with subject related to culture.This research was one of efforts made to enrich quantitative studies related to cultural studies, as well asimplemented such knowledges about spatial statistics for cultural data and information. The main methodused in this research was secondary data analysis from various sources related to cultural potential inMaluku Province, which was available down to district level. Some spatial statistic measures used areGlobal Moran index, Local Indicators for Spatial Association (LISA), as well as spatial cross-correlation,which are applied to all variables related to cultural potential in this research. The results of analysisgenerally didn’t show statistically significant of spatial autocorrelation for each of these culturalpotentials. Nonetheless, there were several important results conducted in this research, that would beinteresting to note as basis for formulating cultural development policies in Maluku Province.
Co-Authors Maryo Poceratu Ningsih Amalia Rosalina Salhuteru Yonlib Weldri Arnold Nanlohy Yudistira