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Lindrianasari
Universitas Lampung
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Science and Technology Indonesia

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Dynamic Modeling of Energy Data: World Crude Oil and Coal Prices 2017-2023 (A State-Space Model Analysis of Multivariate Time Series) Russel, Edwin; Wamiliana; Usman, Mustofa; Elfaki, Faiz AM; Adnan, Arisman; Lindrianasari
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 10 No. 4 (2025): October
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2025.10.4.1301-1311

Abstract

The analysis of global crude oil and coal prices has attracted considerable research interest, as these prices significantly affect both society and industry, making the topic highly relevant for governments and policy makers. This study examines the correlation between global coal and crude oil prices from 2017 to 2023. It analyzes the behavior of these price series using a unit root test and develops an optimal model for conducting a Granger-causality analysis. To forecast crude oil and coal prices for the next 30 periods, a state-space modeling approach is applied. The unit root test results reveal that these prices are non-stationary, suggesting that any shocks to prices will have persistent effects. The best-fitting model for the association between coal and crude oil prices is a vector autoregressive model of order two (VAR(2)). The Granger-causality results reveal that current crude oil prices are influenced by both their own past values and previous coal prices, and vice versa. Forecasts using the state-space model suggest a modest upward trend for crude oil prices over the next 30 periods, while coal prices are projected to rise more strongly.
Co-Authors . Aminah . Komarudin Achmad Subagio Agus Setiawan Alfina Cahyaningsih Alvira, Alvira Amelia, Yunia Aminah, Aminah Andani, Gina Andi Sanjaya Andi Sanjaya Andi, Kiagus Arif Sahputra Arisman Adnan Bashiri, Abdul Basit Berlianti, Maulidia Bunga Tri Lestari Dharma, Fitra Dharma, Fitra Dhiona Ayu Nani Diajeng Fitri Wulan Dwi Gita Noramalia Einde Evana Einde Evana Einde Evana Einde Ivana Einde Ivana Elfaki, Faiz AM Fadli Andika Putra Fajar Gustiawaty Dewi Fanisya Alya Puteri Farichah Farichah Fitra Darma Haninun Ilham Suwanderi Ivana Siregar Jogiyanto Hartono Khairudin Khairudin Kiagus Andi Komalasari, Agrianti Ladista, Rindy Dwi M Yusuf S Barusman Mafiana Annisya Mukti, Ade Damaria Mustofa Usman Nafi', Ahmad Niken Kusumawardani Ninuk Dewi Kesumaningrum Nurdiono Nurdiono Nurdiono Nurdiono Nurdiono Nurdiono Nurdiono _ Nuri Aslami Nurud Diniyah Oktavia, Reni Padma Dewi Piranti Pigo Nauli R. Weddie Adriyanto, R. Weddie R. Weddie Andriyanto Rahmania Santi, Afra Ratna Septiyanti Reni Oktavia Rindu Rika Gamayuni Rindu Rika Gamayuni Rona Majidah Rona Nabila Gusrima Rosmiati Tarmizi Russel, Edwin Salma Karina Seputra Samsul Bakri Samuel Simanjuntak Saputri, Maya Aulia SETIYONO MIHARJO Sianipar, Rifki Safutra Sudrajat sudrajat Sulistyaningsih, Dwi Juwita Supriyadi . Susi Sarumpaet Syaipudin, Usep Tri Joko Prasetyo Usep Syaipudin Usep Syaipudin Utama, Denny Vera Apri Dina Safitri Wamiliana Wayan Swarte Widiarti Eka Putri Yunia Amelia Yuztitya Asmaranti Yuztitya Asmaranti, Yuztitya