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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Matematika UNAND
Nurfitri Imro'ah
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Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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GREY MARKOV (1,1) MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION THAT EXPERIENCED HEALTH COMPLAINTS IN INDONESIA Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda; Nurfitri Imro'ah
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol 12, No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.12.2.108-120.2023

Abstract

In mathematics, in addition to the time series model, Autoregressive, Moving Average, or Autoregressive Moving Average, the Grey-Markov (1,1) model can be employed for forecasting. One of the gains of this model is that it may cover a minimum quantity of data, which is beneficial in situations when the amount of data that is available is restricted but is not excessively vast. This model works well with data that does not exhibit a great deal of variability. The Grey model was further developed into the Grey-Markov model by including the idea of a Markov chain into the original model. In this particular investigation, the processes consist of first forming a sequence using a 1-Accumulated Generating Operation (1-AGO), then forming a sequence using an MGO, and finally predicting using an AGO. The procedure that came before it is actually a modeling procedure for the Grey model. In addition, in order to model Grey- Markov(1,1), it is necessary to initially compute the relative inaccuracy of the forecast that came before it. The following step is to partition the outcome of the relative error into numerous states, one for each interval of the relative error. After that, each error is categorized based on a state that has been specified in advance. The state that is defined within the class is used as the basis for making predictions. The percentage of the population in Indonesia that reports having health difficulties on a yearly basis was chosen as the case study for this research because it is relevant to the topic at hand. The data came from the Central Statistics Agency in the United Kingdom. The period covered by the data is from 1996 to 2021. The purpose of this research is to investigate the structure of the Grey-Markov Model (1,1) and provide a forecast regarding the proportion of the general population that will be affected by health issues in the year 2022. According to the findings of this research project, the forecast of the proportion of the population in Indonesia that suffered health complaints in 2022 produced predictive data that was 30.36%, with a very good accuracy value of 2.43%.
Combining IoT and Time Series Model for Minute-Level Outlier Detection in Wind Speed Forecasting Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda; Nurfitri Imro'ah; Rahmi Hidayati; Kartika Sari
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.35768

Abstract

Renewable energy optimisation and early warning systems require accurate short-term wind speed forecast. Anomalies in environmental data impair forecasting model reliability. This paper presents an integrated approach using IoT-based remote sensing and time series modelling to address the issue. IoT-based anemometer sensors collected wind speed data at one-minute intervals from December 24, 2024, to January 10, 2025. Aggregating the raw data into 5-minute intervals prepared it for the ARIMA model. This model determined temporal patterns and predicted short-term wind speeds. Analyzing residuals between observed and predicted results helped identify wind outliers. This approach is novel because it uses IoT-based continuous sensing and time series modeling for real-time environmental monitoring. Studies showed that a 65-minute frame with 5-minute intervals was best for replicating wind speed dynamics. Six cycles of outlier detection found 87 outliers. The ARIMA model improved predictions by include these outliers as exogenous variables. This emphasizes the importance of fixing time series model anomalies to improve prediction. The augmented ARIMA model with outlier corrections provides minute-level forecasts and reliable anomaly identification for renewable energy optimization and early warning systems. This study shows that new statistical methods and the Internet of Things (IoT) can improve real-time environmental and energy decisions.
Co-Authors Kartika Sari Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda NUR’AINUL MIFTAHUL HUDA Rahmi Hidayati