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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik
Hesty Pratiwi
Universitas Tanjungpura
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Forecasting of Rubber Export Values in West Kalimantan Using the ARIMA Method Hesty Pratiwi; Sy. Farini Nurhaliza; Siti Aprizkiyandari
Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik (FORMASI)
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kalimantan Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57059/formasi.v3i2.60

Abstract

Rubber is one of the largest commodities in Indonesia after palm oil. Rubber has become the primary export commodity in West Kalimantan. In 2023, the export value of rubber in West Kalimantan experienced fluctuations every month. These changes can have a negative impact on the economy in West Kalimantan. Forecasting the value of rubber exports is crucial because the data on rubber export values is often used as a basis for economic planning in a region. The objective of this research is to determine a suitable model for forecasting the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan and to forecast the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan for the next 12 periods using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method.In the stage of determining the best model, it was found that the best model for forecasting the value of rubber exports in West Kalimantan is the ARIMA (1,1,0) model, with a MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 20.7%. This means that the forecasting results fall into the acceptable category. The forecasting results can be used as an early warning for policy-making related to rubber exports in the upcoming periods.
A Hybrid ARIMA-Intervention Modelling for Forest Fire Risk in The Dry Season Nurfitri Imro'ah; Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda; Hesty Pratiwi; Muhammad Yahya Ayyash
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.36741

Abstract

This study explores the time-related patterns of forest fires and assesses the impact of measures implemented during the dry season. Special focus is directed towards the effects of these interventions on the frequency and intensity of fires. This study highlights the importance of combining temporal analysis with spatial data to identify high-risk locations and optimize resource allocation for fire prevention. This study develops an ARIMA model to forecast fire risk before intervention. The findings indicate that integrating intervention factors into the ARIMA model will enhance the model's accuracy. The satisfactory MAPE values and the value data plots effectively demonstrate the data patterns. This method establishes a solid basis for predicting and reducing the risk of forest fires in the dry season, thereby enhancing the fire resilience of ecosystems considered at risk. The findings indicate that the onset of the dry season significantly elevates the risk of forest fires, especially in areas near bodies of water.
Co-Authors Muhammad Yahya Ayyash Nurfitri Imro'ah NUR’AINUL MIFTAHUL HUDA Siti Aprizkiyandari, Nurul Qomariyah, Shantika Martha, Sy. Farini Nurhaliza