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All Journal dCartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi d'Cartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi
Adianto Pakkung
Universitas Sam Ratulangi
Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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Prediksi Curah Hujan Kota Manado Dengan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Adianto Pakkung; Djoni Hatidja; Jullia Titaley
d\'Cartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi Vol. 13 No. 1 (2024): Maret 2024
Publisher : Sam Ratulangi University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35799/dc.13.1.2024.53780

Abstract

This study aims to determine the best ARMA model for predicting Manado City rainfall using the ARMA method. The data used in this study is time series data, namely data on the monthly rainfall period of Manado City starting from September 2018 to August 2023. The results showed that the best model obtained was the ARMA model (1,11) with the equation . From the results of the rainfall prediction, Manado City has an accurate level of MAPE value of 56%, with consecutive predictions from September 2023 to March 2024 are 83.2 mm, 98.8 mm, 131.1 mm, 289.1 mm, 237.7 mm, 222.6 mm, 206.9 mm.
Prediksi Curah Hujan Kota Manado Dengan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Adianto Pakkung; Djoni Hatidja; Jullia Titaley
d\'Cartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi Vol. 13 No. 1 (2024): Maret 2024
Publisher : Sam Ratulangi University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35799/dc.13.1.2024.53780

Abstract

This study aims to determine the best ARMA model for predicting Manado City rainfall using the ARMA method. The data used in this study is time series data, namely data on the monthly rainfall period of Manado City starting from September 2018 to August 2023. The results showed that the best model obtained was the ARMA model (1,11) with the equation . From the results of the rainfall prediction, Manado City has an accurate level of MAPE value of 56%, with consecutive predictions from September 2023 to March 2024 are 83.2 mm, 98.8 mm, 131.1 mm, 289.1 mm, 237.7 mm, 222.6 mm, 206.9 mm.
Co-Authors Djoni Hatidja Jullia Titaley