Phambudi, Guritno Bagus
Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil dan Desain

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Risk Analysis Of Highway Construction On Construction Step Using Monte Carlo Method Case Study: The Construction Of Trans Sumatera Highway Section 2 Sidomulyo - Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 - Sta. 80+000) Phambudi, Guritno Bagus; Kustiani, Ika
Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil dan Desain Vol 6, No 2 (2018): Edisi Juni 2018
Publisher : Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil dan Desain

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Abstract

Trans Sumatera Highway is the first highway construction in the Province of Lampung. There are several risks that might happen at the construction of Trans Sumatera Highway. According to Project Management Institute, the risks that occur at the project could be controlled by managing these risk. These management processes have a purpose to find out the impact from these risk against cost, time and quality. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the scale of the risk that could happen by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitatively, the risk were analyzed by using fishbone diagram method. A set of questionnaire, subsequently, were developed from this fishbone diagram. The questionnaire were asked to a selected respondents that comprice of key persons in the project. The result from the questionnaire were then analyzed further by using a qualitative method which was Monte Carlo through Decision Tools Suite: @RISK for Project. In brief, the data has been through a set of analysis such as Probability Risk Test, Impact Risk Test, Risk Factor Test, and Monte Carlo. Trans Sumatra Bakauheni-Terbanggi Besar Highway project section 2 Sidomulyo – Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 – Sta. 80+000) has land acquisition as the highest risk. These risks also tested against Best Case Scenario, Most Likely Scenario and Worst Case Scenario. Keywords: Project Management, Risk Management, Monte Carlo AbstractTrans Sumatera Highway is the first highway construction in the Province of Lampung. There are several risks that might happen at the construction of Trans Sumatera Highway. According to Project Management Institute, the risks that occur at the project could be controlled by managing these risk. These management processes have a purpose to find out the impact from these risk against cost, time and quality. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the scale of the risk that could happen by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitatively, the risk were analyzed by using fishbone diagram method. A set of questionnaire, subsequently, were developed from this fishbone diagram. The questionnaire were asked to a selected respondents that comprice of key persons in the project. The result from the questionnaire were then analyzed further by using a qualitative method which was Monte Carlo through Decision Tools Suite: @RISK for Project. In brief, the data has been through a set of analysis such as Probability Risk Test, Impact Risk Test, Risk Factor Test, and Monte Carlo. Trans Sumatra Bakauheni-Terbanggi Besar Highway project section 2 Sidomulyo – Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 – Sta. 80+000) has land acquisition as the highest risk. These risks also tested against Best Case Scenario, Most Likely Scenario and Worst Case Scenario. Keywords: Project Management, Risk Management, Monte Carlo