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All Journal International Journal of Basic and Applied Science
Loso Judijanto
a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:56:"Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia";}
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Electrical & Electronics Engineering Physics

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Early warning systems for financial distress: A machine learning approach to corporate risk mitigation Loso Judijanto; Jonhariono Sihotang; Agata Putri Handayani Simbolon
International Journal of Basic and Applied Science Vol. 13 No. 1 (2024): June: Basic and Aplied Science
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/ijobas.v13i1.470

Abstract

This research explores the development of an early warning system for corporate financial distress using machine learning techniques to address key challenges in corporate risk mitigation. The main objective is to enhance predictive accuracy by integrating financial and non-financial data, addressing class imbalance, and ensuring model interpretability. The research design involves the formulation of a new machine learning model, leveraging cost-sensitive learning and feature selection, and is tested with a numerical example using logistic regression. Methodologically, the study adopts a data-driven approach that incorporates diverse financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, and market sentiment indicators to predict corporate distress. The numerical results from a basic logistic regression model demonstrate poor performance, especially in handling class imbalance, revealing limitations in traditional statistical models. However, the research suggests that machine learning methods, particularly ensemble learning with cost-sensitive algorithms, offer superior predictive accuracy and practical applicability. The study concludes that integrating advanced techniques and diverse datasets leads to more reliable early warning systems, with significant implications for corporate governance and financial risk management. Future research should explore more sophisticated machine learning models and extend real-world applications across various industries and economic conditions.
Fuzzy logic framework for financial distress prediction: Enhancing corporate decision-making under uncertainty Loso Judijanto; Fristi Riandari
International Journal of Basic and Applied Science Vol. 13 No. 1 (2024): June: Basic and Aplied Science
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/ijobas.v13i1.474

Abstract

This research aims to develop an enhanced Fuzzy Logic Framework for Financial Distress Prediction to improve corporate decision-making under uncertainty. The primary objective is to address limitations in traditional fuzzy logic models, such as static rule bases and lack of adaptability to dynamic financial conditions. To achieve this, a time-dependent fuzzy logic system is proposed, incorporating real-time financial data and adaptive learning mechanisms to improve predictive accuracy over time. The research design involves creating a dynamic fuzzy rule base, assigning weights to rules based on predictive performance, and optimizing membership functions and rule weights using real-time data. The methodology applies the proposed framework to financial indicators such as liquidity, profitability, and leverage, with a numerical example demonstrating the system's effectiveness in predicting financial distress. The results show that the model can accurately predict financial distress levels, with a predicted distress value of 0.588 compared to an actual value of 0.6. The model’s ability to update rule weights and optimize predictions over time represents a significant improvement over static fuzzy logic models. This research fills a critical gap in financial distress prediction by introducing a dynamic, adaptive fuzzy logic framework that evolves with real-time data. The model offers significant implications for both academics and industry, providing a tool for more accurate risk assessment in volatile financial environments. However, further research is needed to refine the model’s computational efficiency and test its long-term predictive capabilities across different industries
Co-Authors Agata Putri Handayani Simbolon Fristi Riandari Jonhariono Sihotang