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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sosial (JEMeS) Indonesian Journal Economic Review (IJER)
Ilham Febri Budiman
Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Predicting Indonesia's Manufacturing Exports in the RCEP Region: A Machine Learning Approach to the Gravity Model of Trade Ilham Febri Budiman; Nindyta Lutfia Annur; Rachel Jenny Monintja
Indonesian Journal Economic Review (IJER) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): June
Publisher : Divisi Riset, Lembaga Mitra Solusi Teknologi Informasi (L-MSTI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59431/ijer.v6i2.763

Abstract

This study evaluates the structural determinants of Indonesia's manufacturing exports to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) member countries from 2007 to 2024. By utilizing a machine learning approach through the Random Forest algorithm within the Knowledge Discovery in Databases framework, this research transcends the rigid linearity assumptions of traditional econometric models. The computational model demonstrates superior predictive precision, with the model’s accuracy reaching a score of 0.983. A specialized variable importance analysis reveals that economic similarity is the primary catalyst for export flows, thereby strongly confirming the Linder hypothesis regarding intra-industry trade. Furthermore, fundamental gravity model variables, namely economic distance, population size, and gross domestic product, remain highly significant in dictating bilateral trade volumes. Interestingly, the empirical results indicate that the implementation of the RCEP pact and the global pandemic shock possess negligible immediate impacts on the export volume. This anomaly suggests a substantial time lag effect, as domestic industrial supply chains require a considerably long adaptation period to optimally capitalize on tariff eliminations. Consequently, this paper recommends strategic policy interventions for fiscal and customs authorities. The government must synergize logistical infrastructure improvements with targeted industrial incentives, particularly the super tax deduction for research and development and the Import Facility for Export Purposes. These synchronized efforts are essential to reduce economic distance friction, enhance structural competitiveness, and transform Indonesia's participation in the RCEP agreement into tangible manufacturing trade creation.
Analisis Faktor-faktor Penyebab Kendala Pengenaan Pajak pada Sektor Informal di Indonesia: Analysis of Factors Causing Impediments to Taxation in the Informal Sector in Indonesia Ilham Febri Budiman
JEMeS - Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sosial Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sosial (JEMeS)
Publisher : Universitas Bojonegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56071/jemes.v8i2.1208

Abstract

Indonesia's informal sector plays an important role in the economy, particularly in terms of employment and contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the sector also faces significant challenges related to tax compliance, which hinders its contribution to state revenue. This study aims to analyse the factors that make it difficult to tax and its impact on fiscal revenue in Indonesia. The method used is a qualitative approach with literature studies and secondary data. The results show that low tax literacy, the complexity of the tax system, and the high threshold of taxable entrepreneurs (PKP) are the main factors affecting the low level of tax compliance of the informal sector. The vast and diverse informal sector also makes it difficult to record properly, resulting in relatively low state tax revenue from this sector.
Co-Authors Nindyta Lutfia Annur Rachel Jenny Monintja