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All Journal Ecotrophic, Journal of Environmental Science INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND GEOSCIENCES
Utama, I Putu Wira
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Earth & Planetary Sciences Environmental Science

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Assessing lake shoreline change and prediction for 2030 by physical drivers: A Case Study from Lake Batur, Batur UNESCO Global Geopark, Bali Utama, I Putu Wira; Arthana, I Wayan; Nuarsa, I Wayan
International Journal of Environment and Geosciences Vol 5 No 1 (2024): International Journal of Environment and Geosciences
Publisher : Graduate Study of Environmental Sciences, Postgraduate Program of Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/ijeg.2024.v05.i01.p02

Abstract

Over ten years, the water level of Lake Batur has increased. Agriculture area and settlements around Lake Batur are threatened by rising water level. This study aims to analyze the shoreline change of Lake Batur, located in the Batur UNESCO Global Geopark (BUGG), during the period of 2007 – 2018 and design a prediction for 2030. Understanding the shoreline change is very important for lake management and planning. Shoreline changes were analyzed in Geographic Information System (GIS) application. The data were obtained based on Remote Sensing (RS) data, Landsat ETM+ imagery on September 24, 2007, and Landsat OLI imagery on October 24th, 2018. Predictions of lake shoreline in 2030 result from modelling by integrating ASTER-GDEM V2 data, lake water level data for 2007–2018, annual average rainfall data for 2007–2018, and bathymetry data for 2013 and 2015. The results of the satellite imagery analysis show that there has been a change in the length of the shoreline, which has increased from 20.47 km in 2007 to 21.28 km (3.96%) in 2018. The lake surface area changed from 15.34 km2 in 2007 to 16.16 km2 in 2018 (5.35%). The prediction of lake shoreline changes in 2030 showed that Lake Batur will increase to 26.90 km (26.41%), and lake surface area is predicted to increase by 17.67 km2 (9.34%) from 2018. This is because of the morphological change of Lake Bottom.
MODEL SISTEM DINAMIK UNTUK KEBERLANJUTAN DANAU BATUR, BATUR UNESCO GLOBAL GEOPARK, BALI Utama, I Putu Wira; Arthana, I Wayan; Nuarsa, I Wayan; Suryawan Wiranatha, Agung
ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) Vol 18 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Master Program of Environmental Science, Postgraduate Program of Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/EJES.2024.v18.i01.p01

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the best scenario for conserving Lake Batur, Batur UNESCO Global Geopark (BUGG), Bali. Using the system dynamics method, key factors in the management of Lake Batur can be identified. Based on modeling results, it is known that the sustainability of Lake Batur is strongly influenced by aspects of land use, the environment, the economy, and the social culture of the community. The main leverage factors in supporting the preservation of Lake Batur are law enforcement and supervision, government assistance, as well as training and outreach to the community. The analysis of the sensitivity value of the optimistic/moderate ratio shows that the optimistic scenario is the best option to reduce the lake pollution index to 0.86 (still below the 1 threshold). Increasing community income per capita in this area in 2045 is estimated to reach Rp87.992.747,76/year, with predictions of 9,312 floating net cage plots owned by 2,592 entrepreneurs. The predicted number of plots is 14.90 ha, which is still below 1% of the area of Lake Batur. Keywords: System Dynamics; Sustainability; Lake Batur; BUGG
Co-Authors I Wayan Arthana I Wayan Nuarsa Suryawan Wiranatha, Agung