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All Journal The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM)
Chan, Tze-Haw
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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An Empirical Analysis of The Trilemma: Inflation, Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Singapore Chow, Yong Jin; Chan, Tze-Haw
The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Unit Research and Knowledge, School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12695/ajtm.2024.17.2.2

Abstract

Abstract. This study considers the correlation among the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Singapore /US dollar exchange rate, and the Singapore overnight rate average from 2012 to 2023 in Singapore. This small and open economy effectively manages its monetary policy to maintain a healthy inflation rate but has experienced high inflation rates and slow economic growth, raising questions about the effectiveness of the floating exchange rate system adopted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in recent years. This study employs unit root and cointegration tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition. According to the vector error correction model specification, the production function primarily facilitated short-term adjustments toward long-term equilibrium; however, these adjustments were gradual, and it took more than two years to respond to system shocks. Analyses of the impulse response functions and variance decomposition indicate that changes in the variables resulted in analogous behavior patterns, with notable effects that primarily differ in their response to shocks. The empirical evidence supports the view that inflation controls are more sensitive to interest rate adjustment in Singapore. The findings of the present research provide valuable insights and have numerous important implications for the macroeconomic evaluation of Singapore. The study acknowledges that economies are subject to unforeseen events like global crises or pandemics, which can impact exchange rates and inflation beyond the scope of policy measures, and these might not be fully captured in the study. Keywords: Consumer price index, singapore overnight rate average (sora), monetary authority of singapore, free economy, monetary policy, foreign exchange policy
Exploring The Dynamics of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Us Dollar Exchange Rates: A Comprehensive Quantitative Analysis From 2013 To 2023 Yee, Edd Mund; Chan, Tze-Haw
The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Unit Research and Knowledge, School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12695/ajtm.2024.17.2.4

Abstract

Abstract. This study examines the relationships between inflation, interest rates, and US dollar exchange rates from 2013 to 2023. The main objective is to evaluate the value of the US dollar (USD) and understand how key economic indicators interact. Using advanced quantitative analysis, we identify patterns that define these variables. A macro model incorporating the natural logarithms of the USD Index (USDX), Federal Funds Rate (FFR), and Consumer Price Index (CPI) addresses time-related and growth factors. By tracking inflation, interest rates, and dollar fluctuations, we gain insights into the factors influencing the US economy. The findings highlight the slow adjustment of inflation towards long-term stability and reveal significant causal relationships among the variables. As global financial conditions evolve, this study offers relevant insights for policymakers, economists, and market participants on navigating the dynamics of inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates in today's economic landscape. Keywords: Inflation; exchange rate; the United States; fed; fed funds rate
An ARDL Modelling Approach to Assess the Dynamic Effects of Economic Development and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia Ding, Kee Zheng; Chan, Tze-Haw
The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Unit Research and Knowledge, School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12695/ajtm.2024.17.2.3

Abstract

Abstract. This research paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the complex relationship between CO2 emissions and economic factors, specifically investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory in Malaysia. Using data from 1991 to 2020, the study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results demonstrate a significant long-term connection between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade, and carbon emissions, indicating that economic development plays a crucial role in influencing Malaysia's carbon footprint. Additionally, the inclusion of institutional quality in the model adds another layer of complexity, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the relationship between economic progress and environmental outcomes. Furthermore, examining short-term dynamics using the ARDL model reveals diverse effects over time for variables such as renewable energy and institutional quality, providing a more nuanced understanding of these relationships. These detailed insights are essential for policymakers dealing with the challenges of promoting economic progress while ensuring environmental sustainability. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between economic variables and CO2 emissions, offering valuable guidance for policymakers striving to strike a balance between economic growth and environmental conservation in Malaysia. Keywords:  Malaysia, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) modelling, environmental kuznets curve (ekc), carbon dioxide (co2) emissions, gross domestic product (gdp), renewable energy (ren), institutional quality (iq), trade (tr)
Co-Authors Chow, Yong Jin Ding, Kee Zheng Yee, Edd Mund