Pratiwi, Eka Dian
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Pyramid Pest-Control Community-Ecosystem-Management as an Effort to Prevent Leptospirosis Sukendra, Dyah Mahendrasari; Indrawati, Fitri; Puspita Santik, Yunita Dyah; Isnaini, Dewi Nur; Pratiwi, Eka Dian; Abdillah, Azizah Nur; Ash Shiddieqy, Muhammad Hasbi
Jurnal Abdimas Vol 27, No 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/abdimas.v27i2.47799

Abstract

Klaten Regency has the highest cases in Central Java during the last 3 years. Leptospirosis IR has increased 3-fold compared to 2021. In 2022, there will be 80 cases with CFR of 7.5% IR of 6.27/100,000 population, this figure exceeds the national maximum target (≤3/100,000 population). Juwiring is one of the sub-districts with a rapid increase in leptospirosis cases. This study aims to determine differences in the level of knowledge of PKK mothers regarding leptospirosis and efforts to prevent the increase in leptospirosis cases in Bulurejo through Pyramid Pest-Control Community-Ecosystem-Management. The research was conducted in July – August 2023. This research used a pre-experimental approach with one group pretest – posttest design. The research sample consisted of PKK mothers in Bulurejo, Juwiring District, Klaten Regency. Data analysis was performed using Wilcoxon test. The results obtained are p-value 0.001 indicating there is a difference in increasing knowledge before and after being given counseling activities. Counseling activities can have a positive effect on increasing the knowledge of PKK mothers regarding leptospirosis prevention.
PENGGUNAAN ARIMA UNTUK PERAMALAN KASUS HIV USIA 15-49 TAHUN BERDASARKAN JENIS KELAMIN Pratiwi, Eka Dian
HIGEIA (Journal of Public Health Research and Development) Vol 7 No Sup (2023): Suplemen July 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/higeia.v7iSup.68006

Abstract

Abstrak Kasus baru HIV di Kota Yogyakarta pada 2021 mengalami peningkatan dengan prevalensi kasus HIV mencapai 0,3% yang didominasi oleh kelompok usia produktif. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) adalah metode peramalan dengan data time series dari masa lampau untuk memprediksi kejadian pada masa mendatang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui akurasi model ARIMA dan hasil analisis ARIMA dalam peramalan kasus HIV usia produktif (15-49 tahun) di Kota Yogyakarta berdasarkan jenis kelaminnya. Jenis penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif bersifat non-reaktif dan berbasis data sekunder dengan model ARIMA yang dilakukan pada November 2022-Januari 2023. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA (3,2,1) telah signifikan, white noise, residual terdistribusi normal, dan memiliki MAPE 22%, sedangkan model ARIMA (3,1,1) juga telah memenuhi semua uji tersebut kecuali MAPE 96%. Kasus HIV diprediksi akan cenderung meningkat pada laki-laki dan cenderung konstan pada perempuan. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah ARIMA (3,2,1) layak digunakan untuk peramalan kasus pada laki-laki, sedangkan ARIMA (3,1,1) adalah model terbaik namun memiliki akurasi yang rendah untuk peramalan kasus pada perempuan. Abstract New cases of HIV in Yogyakarta City in 2021 have increased with prevalence rate of 0,3% which are dominated by the productive age group. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a forecasting method using historical time series data to predict future events. This study aims to determine the accuracy and results of ARIMA analysis in forecasting HIV cases among productive age (15-49 years old) in Yogyakarta City based on gender. This is a quantitative study that is non-reactive and based on secondary data with ARIMA model which conducted in November 2022­January 2023. The results showed that ARIMA (3,2,1) is significance, white noise, normally distributed residuals, and has MAPE 22%, whereas ARIMA (3,1,1) also fulfilled all of the tests except for MAPE 96%. HIV cases are predicted to increase in male and tend to constant in female. The conclusion of this study is that ARIMA (3,2,1) is suitable for forecasting cases in male, while ARIMA (3,1,1) is the best model but has low accuracy for forecasting cases in female.